Reigning light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida was the first LHW champ to successfully defend his belt in a long time. The 5 round contest eventually went to decision, and the judges gave it to Machida. Ever since then, the MMA blogosphere has been abuzz with talk of how Shogun was robbed, with the last two rounds considered by many to go to the challenger, along with at least one of the first three rounds (though some would say all). The judges disagreed, however, and a rematch is now in the works.

Plenty is being said about the Machida/Shogun fight, but I think it’s best to just let that argument get sorted out in the rematch. I think it was a really close fight, and Shogun laid the foundation for beating Machida, but didn’t quite have the whole gameplan. Instead, I want to take a look at some of the other fights, starting with Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher. The fight went to Stevenson at 4:03 of the second round, thanks to elbows from Stevenson that forced Fisher to tap. Fisher had already taken a cut in the first round, and the elbows just made things worse. Stevenson’s trademark control meant there was no escape from the punishment, so even it was only a matter of time for Fisher to lose after the elbows began raining down. It’s a great sign for the return of Joe Daddy, who I am sure will be contesting the lightweight title again in a few fights.

Cain Velasquez utterly justified his reputation as one of the most dangerous rising stars of the UFC heavyweight division when he GnP’d his way to victory against MMA veteran, Ben Rothwell. While Velasquez was the favorite going into the fight, his relative lack of experience compared to Rothwell didn’t make it look like this would be an easy win, but it was. Ending at 0:58 of the second round in a referee stoppage, Rothwell was utterly dominated technically, and certainly stopped posing a threat long before the stoppage. Strangely, though, it never seemed like he was in danger of being knocked out. This has led many to believe that Velasquez has no finishing power in his strikes, which could bode poorly for him when he comes up against strikers in the future.

This show will always be overshadowed by the controversy of the main event, but there could be some interesting consequences of UFC 104. For one, the LHW division could be in store for another epic trilogy that would play out spectacularly in Brazil, between Machida and Shogun. Secondly, Joe Stevenson should be set back on a rising career path again, having proven that his losses were anomalies in the career of an otherwise excellent fighter. Finally, Cain Velasquez will have to be put up against one of the bigger names soon, as was meant to be the case in the originally scheduled bout of Velasquez vs. Carwin. A title shot is due, but it’ll have to wait until at least a month or two into the new year, as the Lesnar/Carwin fight has been postponed until 2 January, so it seems likely that he’ll face someone else first.

Next week I’ll be posting about the two Strikeforce events, with posts about UFC 105 soon after.

I have a terrible feeling the Lyoto/Shogun match-up could be a lot like the Silva/Griffin fight – a fight that looks entertaining on paper, but the underdog is at a much greater disadvantage than expected. BetUS has the fight at -450 Machida and +325 Shogun, yet those who believe in Shogun’s chances in this fight would make you think the bookies should be calling it much closer.

Shogun supporters seem absolutely convinced that he has the best chance to win. I think most reasonable folk agree, however, that he is a fill-in fight until a more suitable contender can be found. Shogun is a fine fighter, but he has demonstrated no special quality that suggests he is the most likely challenger to take Machida’s belt.

The Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell fight could be very interesting, and BetUS has the fight at -300 Velasquez to +220 Rothwell. Considering Velasquez’s reputation and lack of experience compared to Rothwell, these odds seem very unfair to Rothwell. While Velasquez may have built up something of a reputation for himself, he has still had only 6 fights, even if he is undefeated. Rothwell has 6 losses, but that’s out of 36 fights. That’s 6 times as many fights, and the guy is hardly older than Velasquez. Rothwell might not be as athletic, but age won’t be a factor, while experience could very well be.

I’m looking forward to the Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher fight. He copped a lot of flack for taking the path of positional control to win his last fight, but I find his ability in that area fascinating. Spencer Fisher should prove to be an interesting challenge, as he has ability both on his feet and on the ground, but the BetUS odds of Stevenson -260 to Fisher +200 seem fair.

I’m really looking forward to this event, as it’s been quite a while since a big MMA show with a headline event of real interest. I don’t think Shogun is going to be quite as challenging as is generally thought, but the fight is set to be a very interesting one regardless of the outcome, as a win over Shogun will still certainly be an important victory for Lyoto Machida.