The BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian fight doesn’t seem to have enough hype. While it is certainly true that BJ Penn is a talented monster overshadowing the lightweight division, Kenny Florian poses a genuine risk. Sure, he wasn’t all that impressive when he started out in the UFC, but he’s recently come into his own. It promises to be an excellent fight if both guys come in at the top of their game. Everything points to that being the case, with both fighters hungry to win – Florian to prove he is a legitimate talent and champion, Penn to recover from his loss to GSP.

Sportsbooks are giving the fight to Penn, which is perfectly understandable. BetUS has the fight as -230 for Penn and +180 for Florian. There is definitely good reason to believe that Florian could win, but I would never suggest a bet against BJ Penn at lightweight until it has been proven that his ability has declined at that weight. Plenty of fighters gave him flack over his apparent lack of cardio in his fight against GSP, but I don’t think his welterweight bouts have ever provided useful information about his lightweight performance. The weight change just seems to produce a completely different fighter. I think BJ Penn is most likely to win, unless Florian gets a lucky cut on him.

While the lightweight title defense is exciting, I’m looking forward to the Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin fight much more. The only way I see it not being exciting is if someone gets a knockout in the first 10 seconds, and even that would be interesting. Forrest Griffin doesn’t quit until the fight is over, one way or another, and Anderson Silva is always impressive against fighters like that. Silva is the favorite at BetUS, with -350 odds to Griffin’s +250, and that seems about right. Silva is a better all-round fighter than Griffin, so unless the weight change has severely affected him, it’s almost certain that the fight will go his way. I think it’ll go to decision, as I don’t believe Griffin will be completely outclassed, but any decision is going to come out in favor of Anderson Silva’s ridiculously accurate striking.

Personally, I’m not too interested in that many other fights on the main card. Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino could be good, but I’m more interested in Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida. Both of these fights seem to pit talented mid-tier fighters against one another, and I think that many of the most sincerely fought battles occur at that level of talent. Also, I’ll admit I’m interested in the Grove vs. Almeida fight because I recently started Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and I think that fight is going to stay on the ground.

This is going to be a great month for MMA fans, with so many major events. The unfortunate death of Affliction at the end of July wasn’t great news, but it has seen a lot of up-and-coming fighters taken into the UFC and WEC, and Fedor Emelianenko is moving to Strikeforce, where people may get to see him fight without forking out for a pay-per-view. Later in the week, I’ll take a look at WEC 42 as well, which will see a bantamweight championship bout between dominant Miguel Torres and Brian Bowles.

The most popular man in MMA- wait, no

After Josh Barnett pulled out of his fight with Fedor Emelianenko due to testing positive for drugs, Affliction: Trilogy was looking shaky. Now both the event and the promotional arm of the company are gone.

Affliction has decided to focus on its fashion label, even working with the UFC, and has abandoned its MMA promotions. This has led to many fighters yet again being out of a contract. It has to be terrible news for those fighters who were burnt by the EliteXC debacle earlier, and even worse news for fighters who have blown their chances with the UFC.

One possible upside to this is that Fedor Emelianenko’s management may now have enough pressure on them to strike a deal with the UFC. Emelianenko has been getting paid very handsomely by the promotions he’s worked with of late.  Despite problems that the UFC might have with the paychecks Fedor is after, it is likely the many restrictions a UFC contract would place him under are actually the biggest barrier to a Fedor UFC fight. He might accept less money for the exposure, just not if the UFC restrict him from leveraging that exposure for all it’s worth.

While the UFC, and Dana White particularly, cop flack for not making enough exceptions to their normal negotiations in order to sign Fedor, it should be noted that they are in a position of power. While Fedor’s management may have been able to negotiate generous contracts with smaller promotions, this is because Fedor’s management has been in the position of power in such instances. The thinking of smaller promotions has been that Fedor Emelianenko is sure money in the bank due to how well-regarded he is.

Those small promotions have reasoned they need Fedor in order to have the advantage – the UFC has many more advantages, though, and thus does not depend on signing Fedor. Dana White is smart enough to know that there are plenty of advantages in signing Emelianenko under a normal UFC contract, and even in paying him what he asks, but he also knows that the UFC is the one with the power, not Fedor.

Additionally, Fedor’s management are clearly trying to leverage his success and pull as a way of increasing the power of M-1 Global. Insistence on cross-promotion is incredibly unreasonable when dealing with as big a force as the UFC. I’m all for more strong MMA promotions, I just wish that they would stop trying to compete directly with the UFC from the outset and stick by a business plan that aims at stable growth in the long term, not a quick rise to dominance. If Affliction confirms anything for us, it is that the attempts of upstart promotions to try and force success through mere star power just will not work for MMA.

With no more Affliction this Saturday, August just became a bit more manageable. The next big event will be UFC 101 on 8 August, which promises the fight between Forrest Griffin and Anderson Silva. Regardless of if Silva wins as expected, Griffin should at least offer the kind of resistance that makes for an incredible fight. Silva’s recent challenger, Thales Leites, seemed terrified of getting stopped or hurt, but Forrest Griffin seemingly has no regard for pain in the ring. Let’s hope that translates into a vicious fight at light heavyweight.