Sure, Strikeforce may find they are unable to afford Fedor if the Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers card on Saturday doesn’t bring in enough viewers, but at least a wider audience will be exposed to Russia’s greatest gift to MMA. Sportsbooks are wisely calling the fight for Fedor, at odds of as much as -550 for Fedor compared to Brett Rogers at +375.

What needs to be said about Fedor Emelianenko? If you’re reading this, you’re likely familiar with his work, but let’s take a look at why he has often placed well on pound-for-pound listings. First of all, his record is near flawless. His only loss was due to an illegal elbow cutting him open, and a tournament format that did not allow for No Contests. Secondly, he has defeated many of the top heavyweights such as Andrei Arlovski, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He also has wins over well-known names like Matt Lindland, Kevin Randleman, and Renato Sobral.

Now that you are refreshed on why Fedor is so highly regarded, let’s take a look at his opponent. Brett Rogers is undefeated in 10 fights, including a win over former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski. All his fights have been ended within the distance with strikes, so he’s an exciting fighter, but this does make it hard to gauge his fitness. Rogers is big, at 6 feet 5 inches and 265lbs, much larger than Fedor. If he’s to have a chance of winning, I think he’ll have to KO Fedor early in the game, or else he’ll gas out before the end.

Moving on from the main event, the Fedor vs Rogers card will also feature the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship bout between Jake Shields and Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller. Shields is the oddsmakers’ favorite at -300 to Mayhem’s +220 at some sportsbooks, but few fans think the fight realistically looks so one-sided. Yes, Shields is on a 12 fight win streak, but Mayhem is a much larger fighter and curiously resistant to submissions. It is fair to guess that this will end in a unanimous decision victory for Shields, it’s just not fair to discount Mayhem’s stand up game, as it might put Shields in danger.

I’m not all that interested in the other main card fights in this show. Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou is fan pandering, as Sokoudjou doesn’t stand a chance. The bookies agree, with Mousasi at -500 and Sokoudjou at +350. Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva will only be interesting in terms of outcome, as a win for Silva will really benefit his career and help to get him back on track, while a win for Werdum is unlikely to be very meaningful.

To finish up, it’s worth taking a brief look at the ShoMMA card on 6 November. Obviously this is nowhere near as big an event as the proper Strikeforce show the next day, but the main event of Jorge Gurgel vs. Billy Evangelista is a smart fight to use as a headline for a minor card. Jorge Gurgel is recognizable due to his appearance on the second season of TUF, and his Fight of the Night performances in the UFC. Putting him up against Billy Evangelista makes for an intriguing fight, as Evangelista is one of the most promising up-and-coming Strikeforce fighters with an undefeated record. While this fight would not be compelling on a regular Strikeforce card, it should be a decent draw for ShoMMA. I think this one will go to Evangelista by decision, unless Gurgel decides to actually use his ground skills rather than trying to scrap.

Next week, there’ll be another UFC event, one filled with British fighters. It’s a bit odd that the main event is Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera given that UFC 105 is in Manchester, but almost every other bout has a well known English fighter, so it seems unlikely that this will have anything other than a huge turnout. Honestly, if the UK press don’t go crazy for this event, I’ll be shocked.

In terms of betting, BetUS and Bodog have both offered odds on many major fights for both ShoMMA and Bellator XII. Here’s how some of them compare:

ShoMMA
Sarah Kaufman vs. Shayna Baszler
BetUS: Kaufman -220 and Baszler +170
Bodog: Kaufman -200 and Baszler +160

Jorge Gurgel vs. Conor Heun
BetUS: Gurgel -125 and Heun -115
Bodog: Gurgel -115 and Heun -115

Evangelista Santos vs. Joey Villasenor
BetUS: Santos +170 and Villasenor -220
Bodog: Santos +160 and Villasenor -200

Bellator XII
Eddie Alvarez vs. Toby Imada
BetUS: Alvarez -550 and Imada +325
Bodog: Alvarez -600 and Imada +400

Hector Lombard vs. Jared Hess
BetUS: Lombard -225 and Hess +175
Bodog: Lombard -205 and Hess +165

For ShoMMA, I’m really looking forward to the fight between Kaufman and Baszler. Kaufman is currently undefeated and has won all but one of her fights by KO or TKO. Baszler has a few losses, but all her wins are by submission. This promises an explosive fight standing or on the ground, as Kaufman will be trying for a KO while Baszler seeks to take it to the ground for a submission.

Bellator XII will see the middleweight finals and lightweight finals for their 2009 season. Eddie Alvarez is the favorite to take the lightweight finals, and I don’t see potential for an upset. The middleweight final is less obvious, but the experience of Hector Lombard will likely give him a solid enough advantage to convincingly take the title.

For many more MMA fans and lots of newcomers, the TUF 9 Finale is the big event of the weekend. TUF 9 was certainly an interesting season, and it probably made Mike Bisping even more hated in the USA and loved in the UK. The lightweight finals will be between two Britons, Andre Winner at -185 at Bodog and Ross Pearson at +155 at Bodog. The middleweight finals will be between American DaMarques Johnson and James Wilks from the UK. Bodog has posted odds of -350 for DaMarques Johnson to win and +275 for James Wilks. Here’s a hint – the odds on this fight are quite likely to be skewed by fervent betting on the only American finalist.

In terms of betting on other fights, it is the headline fights for this event that are getting attention. The following odds have been posted for the TUF 9 Finale:

Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez
BetUS: Guida +200 and Sanchez -300
Bodog: Guida +250 and Sanchez -325

Joe Stevenson vs. Nathan Diaz
BetUS: Stevenson +110 and Diaz -150
Bodog: Stevenson +120 and Diaz -150

The Guida/Sanchez odds look about right, as Sanchez is proving to be an exceptional talent in the lightweight division. As for the Stevenson/Diaz odds, I think that Stevenson has a pretty strong chance of getting the upset, as he is very talented at controlling fights. People seem to be giving it to Diaz because of his exceptional BJJ game on the ground, but I really think this underestimates Joe Stevenson’s wrestling abilities.

Have a happy weekend of betting on and watching MMA!