Reigning light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida was the first LHW champ to successfully defend his belt in a long time. The 5 round contest eventually went to decision, and the judges gave it to Machida. Ever since then, the MMA blogosphere has been abuzz with talk of how Shogun was robbed, with the last two rounds considered by many to go to the challenger, along with at least one of the first three rounds (though some would say all). The judges disagreed, however, and a rematch is now in the works.

Plenty is being said about the Machida/Shogun fight, but I think it’s best to just let that argument get sorted out in the rematch. I think it was a really close fight, and Shogun laid the foundation for beating Machida, but didn’t quite have the whole gameplan. Instead, I want to take a look at some of the other fights, starting with Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher. The fight went to Stevenson at 4:03 of the second round, thanks to elbows from Stevenson that forced Fisher to tap. Fisher had already taken a cut in the first round, and the elbows just made things worse. Stevenson’s trademark control meant there was no escape from the punishment, so even it was only a matter of time for Fisher to lose after the elbows began raining down. It’s a great sign for the return of Joe Daddy, who I am sure will be contesting the lightweight title again in a few fights.

Cain Velasquez utterly justified his reputation as one of the most dangerous rising stars of the UFC heavyweight division when he GnP’d his way to victory against MMA veteran, Ben Rothwell. While Velasquez was the favorite going into the fight, his relative lack of experience compared to Rothwell didn’t make it look like this would be an easy win, but it was. Ending at 0:58 of the second round in a referee stoppage, Rothwell was utterly dominated technically, and certainly stopped posing a threat long before the stoppage. Strangely, though, it never seemed like he was in danger of being knocked out. This has led many to believe that Velasquez has no finishing power in his strikes, which could bode poorly for him when he comes up against strikers in the future.

This show will always be overshadowed by the controversy of the main event, but there could be some interesting consequences of UFC 104. For one, the LHW division could be in store for another epic trilogy that would play out spectacularly in Brazil, between Machida and Shogun. Secondly, Joe Stevenson should be set back on a rising career path again, having proven that his losses were anomalies in the career of an otherwise excellent fighter. Finally, Cain Velasquez will have to be put up against one of the bigger names soon, as was meant to be the case in the originally scheduled bout of Velasquez vs. Carwin. A title shot is due, but it’ll have to wait until at least a month or two into the new year, as the Lesnar/Carwin fight has been postponed until 2 January, so it seems likely that he’ll face someone else first.

Next week I’ll be posting about the two Strikeforce events, with posts about UFC 105 soon after.

I have a terrible feeling the Lyoto/Shogun match-up could be a lot like the Silva/Griffin fight – a fight that looks entertaining on paper, but the underdog is at a much greater disadvantage than expected. BetUS has the fight at -450 Machida and +325 Shogun, yet those who believe in Shogun’s chances in this fight would make you think the bookies should be calling it much closer.

Shogun supporters seem absolutely convinced that he has the best chance to win. I think most reasonable folk agree, however, that he is a fill-in fight until a more suitable contender can be found. Shogun is a fine fighter, but he has demonstrated no special quality that suggests he is the most likely challenger to take Machida’s belt.

The Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell fight could be very interesting, and BetUS has the fight at -300 Velasquez to +220 Rothwell. Considering Velasquez’s reputation and lack of experience compared to Rothwell, these odds seem very unfair to Rothwell. While Velasquez may have built up something of a reputation for himself, he has still had only 6 fights, even if he is undefeated. Rothwell has 6 losses, but that’s out of 36 fights. That’s 6 times as many fights, and the guy is hardly older than Velasquez. Rothwell might not be as athletic, but age won’t be a factor, while experience could very well be.

I’m looking forward to the Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher fight. He copped a lot of flack for taking the path of positional control to win his last fight, but I find his ability in that area fascinating. Spencer Fisher should prove to be an interesting challenge, as he has ability both on his feet and on the ground, but the BetUS odds of Stevenson -260 to Fisher +200 seem fair.

I’m really looking forward to this event, as it’s been quite a while since a big MMA show with a headline event of real interest. I don’t think Shogun is going to be quite as challenging as is generally thought, but the fight is set to be a very interesting one regardless of the outcome, as a win over Shogun will still certainly be an important victory for Lyoto Machida.

Let’s take a look at some of the minor fights, first. My condolences to Dan Miller for his painful loss against Chael Sonnen. That early attempt at a guillotine choke must have just wrecked Miller’s arms. Seriously, despite his attempts at a few more submissions, Miller just got pounded into the mat by Sonnen once that guillotine choke came off. I’m not sure that the choke alone was what did it for him, but I do think that the punishment Miller took in the first round essentially set him up to lose the other two. To be honest, it was a bit unbelievable that Sonnen couldn’t finish him off, despite absolutely dominating for almost all 15 minutes of the fight.

I wasn’t sure about the decision to stop the Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam fight. Sure, McFedries was dominating and Foupa-Pokam had taken a lot of hits, but looking at him just after the fight had stopped, it seemed as if he still had the capacity to fight. It was a tough decision, though, and I believe the ref is always right to err on the side of fighter safety. It was too bad for Foupa-Pokam, but an incredible display of dominance for McFedries.

The Frank Edgar vs. Sean Sherk fight was a pleasant surprise for a fight that seemed bound to go to Sherk. I’ve heard that Dana White said he couldn’t see how Edgar could have won that fight. Probably everyone was thinking the same thing. It was a good technical fight, though, with Edgar avoiding the bigger strikes of Sherk while scoring more points with faster flurries. He took all three rounds 30 – 27 ending in good condition, so his game plan can hardly be faulted.

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra was a fun fight, except for the entire second round. That round was terrible to watch, but an excellent strategic decision on the part of Matt Hughes. He really did just lie on top of Serra for the round, though it should be said that Serra didn’t try to do much other than eliminate his striking power and stop transitions. I think Serra was relying too much on a referee stand up and thus got lazy about attempting submissions. Hughes made attempts to pass and continued to do damage, and this seemed enough for the ref not to take away his advantage.

The first and third rounds were pretty close, so it’s hard to know for sure which round won it for Hughes. I was a bit surprised it wasn’t a split decision and I feel that the judges probably didn’t all judge Hughes as having won the same rounds. Nevertheless, it was entirely expected that Hughes would get the decision once he wasn’t submitted in the third round, so I doubt anyone could reasonably say that Hughes didn’t earn his victory. Hopefully it will teach a lesson to everyone going up against wrestlers – you have to spot when they are looking to simply steal a round with ground control, because that one free round will keep them fresh and ahead on the judges’ score cards.

Finally, the championship fight between Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans was spectacular. Considering their unique styles, I expected a lot of circling to begin with, so that didn’t bother me. Evans did not commit at the right time, and this is probably what lost it for him so quickly. Let’s not be unrealistic here – Machida would have won regardless, he was clearly superior. I just think that Evans would have lasted longer had he dropped his strategy of countering and decided to commit to an exchange of his choosing. As it happened, though, Machida found the right opportunities and had the killer instinct to just keep hitting once Evans was clearly fading. Still, you have to give Rashad Evans props for his ability to keep standing and punching even after so many big hits.

Now it’s time to look forward to UFC 98 and hopefully a few wars between fighters that are looking for a second chance. It’s billed as The Comeback, and it would be great if Rich Franklin could get back on the path to title shots, as I think he’s a fighter who has not quite lived up to his full potential. I’m hoping he still can.