Well, I don’t think it would shock anyone to see Penn keep his belt. What can Sanchez do, exactly, that BJ isn’t capable of neutralizing or doing better? Takedown Penn? Not gonna happen. Reverse Penn? Not gonna happen. Outstrike the champ? Not gonna happen. Diego Sanchez defeated a lazy Joe Stevenson and the lackluster Clay Guida to get here, with his win over Guida coming as a split decision. While he is certainly capable of playing with better fighters at lightweight, Sanchez has done nothing so far to prove he has what it takes to defeat BJ Penn. Sure, Penn’s cardio continues to look suspect, but I don’t think this is going into championship rounds. Is Diego Sanchez going to get owned? YUS!

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo could get interesting if Mir hasn’t focused on training to beat Kongo rather than a rematch with Hulk- I mean Brock Lesnar. Really, the superior ground skills of Mir should win this, but Kongo is no slouch. An expert striker with great reach, Kongo will definitely have the advantage standing, and probably in the clinch. I think Mir should take this fight, but he just needs to have prepared to take Kongo down and have prepared for a rematch against Lesnar.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce I have no qualms about giving to Fitch. Pierce may be on a 6 fight win streak, but his major wins are over fighters that are proving not to live up to the potential they showed earlier in their careers. I have a bad feeling that Fitch is getting used as a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division. This is a big mistake, as the man is a genuine contender. He’ll destroy most other fighters at welterweight, so why feed a possible up-and-comer to this monster?

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida looks set to put Florian on the path to being a gatekeeper for the lightweight division, while setting Guida on the path to retirement… or at least to getting dropped from the UFC. Florian is a better fighter than Guida, who has a UFC record of 5 wins, 4 losses. It’s not that the guy’s bad – he’s just not a contender, and he isn’t quite consistent enough to keep the riff raff out of the top of the division. Florian will take the fight handily, but Guida will put up a struggle and should make this entertaining.

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve will see Buentello make his UFC return. This fight is kind of hard to pick. Struve could potentially rise above his currently iffy record, but he will have to defeat the veteran Buentello first. Both fighters are well versed in kickboxing, and both have many wins by submission. In the end, I’d have to say this fight goes to Buentello if it remains standing, but to Struve if they hit the ground. Overall, I think Struve will take it, managing to hold his own standing before getting Buentello down and finishing him with a submission from there.

The UFC 107 undercard will not be showing any fights on Spike TV, which is too bad, as the Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia fight should be interesting. This is the last UFC event of the year, but Strikeforce and K-1/Dream still have events in December. Other good news is that the Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping match for UFC 110 seems to be a go, but it looks like it won’t be the main event – that honor could now go to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez! Australia is getting a high quality card in February.

The BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian fight doesn’t seem to have enough hype. While it is certainly true that BJ Penn is a talented monster overshadowing the lightweight division, Kenny Florian poses a genuine risk. Sure, he wasn’t all that impressive when he started out in the UFC, but he’s recently come into his own. It promises to be an excellent fight if both guys come in at the top of their game. Everything points to that being the case, with both fighters hungry to win – Florian to prove he is a legitimate talent and champion, Penn to recover from his loss to GSP.

Sportsbooks are giving the fight to Penn, which is perfectly understandable. BetUS has the fight as -230 for Penn and +180 for Florian. There is definitely good reason to believe that Florian could win, but I would never suggest a bet against BJ Penn at lightweight until it has been proven that his ability has declined at that weight. Plenty of fighters gave him flack over his apparent lack of cardio in his fight against GSP, but I don’t think his welterweight bouts have ever provided useful information about his lightweight performance. The weight change just seems to produce a completely different fighter. I think BJ Penn is most likely to win, unless Florian gets a lucky cut on him.

While the lightweight title defense is exciting, I’m looking forward to the Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin fight much more. The only way I see it not being exciting is if someone gets a knockout in the first 10 seconds, and even that would be interesting. Forrest Griffin doesn’t quit until the fight is over, one way or another, and Anderson Silva is always impressive against fighters like that. Silva is the favorite at BetUS, with -350 odds to Griffin’s +250, and that seems about right. Silva is a better all-round fighter than Griffin, so unless the weight change has severely affected him, it’s almost certain that the fight will go his way. I think it’ll go to decision, as I don’t believe Griffin will be completely outclassed, but any decision is going to come out in favor of Anderson Silva’s ridiculously accurate striking.

Personally, I’m not too interested in that many other fights on the main card. Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino could be good, but I’m more interested in Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida. Both of these fights seem to pit talented mid-tier fighters against one another, and I think that many of the most sincerely fought battles occur at that level of talent. Also, I’ll admit I’m interested in the Grove vs. Almeida fight because I recently started Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and I think that fight is going to stay on the ground.

This is going to be a great month for MMA fans, with so many major events. The unfortunate death of Affliction at the end of July wasn’t great news, but it has seen a lot of up-and-coming fighters taken into the UFC and WEC, and Fedor Emelianenko is moving to Strikeforce, where people may get to see him fight without forking out for a pay-per-view. Later in the week, I’ll take a look at WEC 42 as well, which will see a bantamweight championship bout between dominant Miguel Torres and Brian Bowles.