I was lucky enough to attend this UFC event, and I can tell you that the crowd was revved up the entire time for action standing or on the ground – just so long as the fighters were working! While some late cancellations and replacements led to a particularly one-sided affair (Cro Cop absolutely outclassed Anthony Perosh, as expected) the remaining unaltered fights were a sight to behold.

I’d like to focus attention on 3 fights in particular: Sotiropoulos vs Stevenson, Lytle vs Foster, and Velasquez vs Nogueira. First of all, it did my heart good to see George Sotiropoulos dominate Joe Stevenson standing and on the ground. It was even better to see that George could fight from the bottom, using 10th Planet JJ technique to control Stevenson. Now, I like Joe and I’m sad to see him have to start building up wins again, but Sotiropoulos is an exciting ground fighter who grapples to win. This was a decision only because Joe is so tough – Sotiropoulos made a number of close submission attempts that would have worked on many other less game fighters.

Lytle vs Foster proved that Chris Lytle should be on every card. Of every MMA event. Twice each night, if at all possible. But seriously, that guy always puts on a hell of a show, and while his wild swinging at the start of the fight looked like it might open him up for a spectacular knockout later, he put Brian Foster out of commission for a while with a gorgeous kneebar. That was a thing of beauty to see live, and I couldn’t help but wince as it came on and Foster started tapping furiously. Foster was able to limp on his leg a bit afterwards, so I’m hoping the damage isn’t too severe. Damn good show on the part of Lytle, though my girlfriend thought he was too cocky afterwards.

Finally, Cain Velasquez must have shed his reputation for pillow punches by now, as he knocked Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira down and out in the first round. Considering the number of punches Velasquez was landing with seemingly no effect, I doubt anyone expected a first round KO before it happened. Nogueira looked set to lose that fight from the beginning, though, as Velasquez just kept getting there first with his strikes. This should definitely have earned him a title shot, either against Brock Lesnar directly, or against the winner of Mir/Carwin for the interim title.

It’s hard to get excited for the next event after the huge build-up to 110, but I think I can manage. UFC 111 sees Dan Hardy challenge GSP for the welterweight belt, and I don’t think this will be as one-sided as people expect. While Hardy is primarily a striker, he is fairly obsessed with 10th Planet JJ and actually does quite a bit of work on his ground game. I’m guessing he expects to get taken down, and he probably has a few tricks up his sleeve for fighting from his back against a dominant wrestler like GSP. I doubt Hardy will win, but UFC 111 should prove to doubters that he is a legitimate welterweight contender.

The main event of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez is getting odds of -115 for both fighters at BetUS and -120 Nog to -110 Velasquez at Bodog. Needless to say, the bookies figure it’ll be a close fight. It’s conventional wisdom not to bet on such close fights, and there’s a good reason for that. You are looking at a fairly even chance of a win or loss, yet neither bet you could make would pay out much. BetUS is also offering over/under odds, but those bets are rarely a good idea.

We’re talking a legend of the sport in Nogueira up against a young undefeated prospect in Velasquez. This is a clear test of whether Velasquez has what it takes to vie for title contention. I think he does, and my feeling is that this will actually be a disappointing technical battle. My other guess is Nogueira by omoplata, but that’s just because I think it would be cool to see.

The other really big fight at UFC 110 will be Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping, which BetUS has at -145 Silva to +115 Bisping, and Bodog has at -154 Silva to +125 Bisping. Anyone who has read this blog knows I like Michael Bisping. And, yes, I think he will win. This is mostly due to the fact that Silva has lost 6 of his last 10 fights, while Bisping’s only recent loss was that spectacular knockout delivered by Dan Henderson. Yep, it was a bad loss, but it didn’t really reveal any fundamental flaws with Bisping’s style. I don’t think Silva will be bringing anything of his old self, nor anything revolutionary that will bring back his winning ways. I call a second round TKO for Bisping, who will knock Silva down and then swarm in for the finish.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropoulos is a really interesting fight. I’ll be happy if either fighter wins, as I like them both, but a win for Sotiropoulos would be far more meaningful. Unfortunately, it’ll be a struggle for him, as he’s the underdog in this fight for good reason. George’s BJJ skills are outstanding, as we’ve seen in many of his fights, but he has yet to fight someone with equally impressive ground fighting. Stevenson is that fight, and he is on something of a tear at the moment, coming back from troubling losses with a couple of dominant victories. If George gets past Stevenson, he’s probably on his way to a title shot in a couple more fights. It just doesn’t seem likely given Joe Stevenson’s great wrestling.

There are just so many excellent fights on this card, and it’s going to be a real treat to watch. Sure, you never know what a fight is going to be like until it happens, but most of these match-ups promise a lot of excitement.

Reigning light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida was the first LHW champ to successfully defend his belt in a long time. The 5 round contest eventually went to decision, and the judges gave it to Machida. Ever since then, the MMA blogosphere has been abuzz with talk of how Shogun was robbed, with the last two rounds considered by many to go to the challenger, along with at least one of the first three rounds (though some would say all). The judges disagreed, however, and a rematch is now in the works.

Plenty is being said about the Machida/Shogun fight, but I think it’s best to just let that argument get sorted out in the rematch. I think it was a really close fight, and Shogun laid the foundation for beating Machida, but didn’t quite have the whole gameplan. Instead, I want to take a look at some of the other fights, starting with Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher. The fight went to Stevenson at 4:03 of the second round, thanks to elbows from Stevenson that forced Fisher to tap. Fisher had already taken a cut in the first round, and the elbows just made things worse. Stevenson’s trademark control meant there was no escape from the punishment, so even it was only a matter of time for Fisher to lose after the elbows began raining down. It’s a great sign for the return of Joe Daddy, who I am sure will be contesting the lightweight title again in a few fights.

Cain Velasquez utterly justified his reputation as one of the most dangerous rising stars of the UFC heavyweight division when he GnP’d his way to victory against MMA veteran, Ben Rothwell. While Velasquez was the favorite going into the fight, his relative lack of experience compared to Rothwell didn’t make it look like this would be an easy win, but it was. Ending at 0:58 of the second round in a referee stoppage, Rothwell was utterly dominated technically, and certainly stopped posing a threat long before the stoppage. Strangely, though, it never seemed like he was in danger of being knocked out. This has led many to believe that Velasquez has no finishing power in his strikes, which could bode poorly for him when he comes up against strikers in the future.

This show will always be overshadowed by the controversy of the main event, but there could be some interesting consequences of UFC 104. For one, the LHW division could be in store for another epic trilogy that would play out spectacularly in Brazil, between Machida and Shogun. Secondly, Joe Stevenson should be set back on a rising career path again, having proven that his losses were anomalies in the career of an otherwise excellent fighter. Finally, Cain Velasquez will have to be put up against one of the bigger names soon, as was meant to be the case in the originally scheduled bout of Velasquez vs. Carwin. A title shot is due, but it’ll have to wait until at least a month or two into the new year, as the Lesnar/Carwin fight has been postponed until 2 January, so it seems likely that he’ll face someone else first.

Next week I’ll be posting about the two Strikeforce events, with posts about UFC 105 soon after.

I have a terrible feeling the Lyoto/Shogun match-up could be a lot like the Silva/Griffin fight – a fight that looks entertaining on paper, but the underdog is at a much greater disadvantage than expected. BetUS has the fight at -450 Machida and +325 Shogun, yet those who believe in Shogun’s chances in this fight would make you think the bookies should be calling it much closer.

Shogun supporters seem absolutely convinced that he has the best chance to win. I think most reasonable folk agree, however, that he is a fill-in fight until a more suitable contender can be found. Shogun is a fine fighter, but he has demonstrated no special quality that suggests he is the most likely challenger to take Machida’s belt.

The Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell fight could be very interesting, and BetUS has the fight at -300 Velasquez to +220 Rothwell. Considering Velasquez’s reputation and lack of experience compared to Rothwell, these odds seem very unfair to Rothwell. While Velasquez may have built up something of a reputation for himself, he has still had only 6 fights, even if he is undefeated. Rothwell has 6 losses, but that’s out of 36 fights. That’s 6 times as many fights, and the guy is hardly older than Velasquez. Rothwell might not be as athletic, but age won’t be a factor, while experience could very well be.

I’m looking forward to the Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher fight. He copped a lot of flack for taking the path of positional control to win his last fight, but I find his ability in that area fascinating. Spencer Fisher should prove to be an interesting challenge, as he has ability both on his feet and on the ground, but the BetUS odds of Stevenson -260 to Fisher +200 seem fair.

I’m really looking forward to this event, as it’s been quite a while since a big MMA show with a headline event of real interest. I don’t think Shogun is going to be quite as challenging as is generally thought, but the fight is set to be a very interesting one regardless of the outcome, as a win over Shogun will still certainly be an important victory for Lyoto Machida.

In terms of betting, BetUS and Bodog have both offered odds on many major fights for both ShoMMA and Bellator XII. Here’s how some of them compare:

ShoMMA
Sarah Kaufman vs. Shayna Baszler
BetUS: Kaufman -220 and Baszler +170
Bodog: Kaufman -200 and Baszler +160

Jorge Gurgel vs. Conor Heun
BetUS: Gurgel -125 and Heun -115
Bodog: Gurgel -115 and Heun -115

Evangelista Santos vs. Joey Villasenor
BetUS: Santos +170 and Villasenor -220
Bodog: Santos +160 and Villasenor -200

Bellator XII
Eddie Alvarez vs. Toby Imada
BetUS: Alvarez -550 and Imada +325
Bodog: Alvarez -600 and Imada +400

Hector Lombard vs. Jared Hess
BetUS: Lombard -225 and Hess +175
Bodog: Lombard -205 and Hess +165

For ShoMMA, I’m really looking forward to the fight between Kaufman and Baszler. Kaufman is currently undefeated and has won all but one of her fights by KO or TKO. Baszler has a few losses, but all her wins are by submission. This promises an explosive fight standing or on the ground, as Kaufman will be trying for a KO while Baszler seeks to take it to the ground for a submission.

Bellator XII will see the middleweight finals and lightweight finals for their 2009 season. Eddie Alvarez is the favorite to take the lightweight finals, and I don’t see potential for an upset. The middleweight final is less obvious, but the experience of Hector Lombard will likely give him a solid enough advantage to convincingly take the title.

For many more MMA fans and lots of newcomers, the TUF 9 Finale is the big event of the weekend. TUF 9 was certainly an interesting season, and it probably made Mike Bisping even more hated in the USA and loved in the UK. The lightweight finals will be between two Britons, Andre Winner at -185 at Bodog and Ross Pearson at +155 at Bodog. The middleweight finals will be between American DaMarques Johnson and James Wilks from the UK. Bodog has posted odds of -350 for DaMarques Johnson to win and +275 for James Wilks. Here’s a hint – the odds on this fight are quite likely to be skewed by fervent betting on the only American finalist.

In terms of betting on other fights, it is the headline fights for this event that are getting attention. The following odds have been posted for the TUF 9 Finale:

Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez
BetUS: Guida +200 and Sanchez -300
Bodog: Guida +250 and Sanchez -325

Joe Stevenson vs. Nathan Diaz
BetUS: Stevenson +110 and Diaz -150
Bodog: Stevenson +120 and Diaz -150

The Guida/Sanchez odds look about right, as Sanchez is proving to be an exceptional talent in the lightweight division. As for the Stevenson/Diaz odds, I think that Stevenson has a pretty strong chance of getting the upset, as he is very talented at controlling fights. People seem to be giving it to Diaz because of his exceptional BJJ game on the ground, but I really think this underestimates Joe Stevenson’s wrestling abilities.

Have a happy weekend of betting on and watching MMA!