First of all, let’s take a look at George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent. Before the fight even started, many people thought that the Australian Sotiropoulos would win this via submission, and the only surprise was that it took longer than expected. While this fight wasn’t scheduled to be televised, I never had any doubt it would end up on TV – I just didn’t think it would make it to both the Spike broadcast as well as the PPV! George Sotiropoulos is an incredible BJJ fighter. It will be interesting to see him go up against a world class wrestler, though, as that tends to be the real test for BJJ focused grapplers. Nevertheless, the way Sotiropoulos controlled Dent on the ground before going for the armbar was incredible, especially the use of the biceps crusher to weaken the arm before pulling on the armbar.

In a massive upset, Jake Rosholt got tapped out by Kendall Grove in a triangle choke within the first round. Given that Rosholt recently knocked out Chris Leben with a triangle of his own at UFC 102, this had to be embarrassing. A submission looked to be the only way Kendall Grove could have won, and Jake Rosholt was happy to oblige, keeping Kendall in the UFC for another day. I think this is part of an emerging problem with wrestlers forgetting that BJJ guys can actually fight from the bottom. I know it hasn’t been a common occurrence in recent years, but submissions from the bottom will happen if you make a mistake.

Finally, the Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson fight ended in a submission win for Koscheck via rear naked choke. In an utterly bizarre fight, fouls were traded as Anthony Johnson threw a knee to the head of Koscheck while he was grounded, though replays showed that it only seemed to glance off Koscheck’s arm. Soon after, Koscheck caught a poke in the eye, and this must have gotten him mad, as he took Johnson down in the last part of the round and the fight got even weirder in round 2. Two eyepokes from Koscheck to Johnson, and eventually Koscheck gets Johnson down again. From half-guard, Koscheck rained down elbows and broke Johnson’s spirit. Mercifully, he eventually moved to take Johnson’s back and sank in a rear naked choke to end the fight.

This was kind of a weird night of fights, and it’s interesting to see how submissions were used. Kendall Grove threw on a triangle from a generally defensive position, while Sotiropoulos and Koscheck both seem to have gone for submissions as a surer way of ending the fight than ground and pound. I think too many ground fighters are concerned with trying to get TKOs through beating up their opponent and then end up going to decision. If you are clearly dominating the other fighter on the ground, and the only thing keeping the fight going is their seeming inability to get cut badly or be knocked senseless, just accept they have a good chin and go for an arm!

There’s a bit of a wait until the next big events, but The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale will be on soon enough. Matt Hamill will take on the undefeated Jon Jones in the main event, and we’ll also get to see Kimbo Slice get demolished on the ground again for our amusement. I’ve also been reading that Wanderlei Silva will be facing Michael Bisping at UFC 110 in Sydney, so obviously I’ll keep an eye on whether that ends up happening.

There are only a couple of days until UFC 102, which will see Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira fight to decide who will remain in contention for the heavyweight title, and who will be left as a gatekeeper.

Let’s take a good look at the main event fight. First, we have Randy Couture, who has a long and glorious history, but he has been past his peak for a long time. He’s an excellent athlete, but he’s also in his mid-forties. Randy is up against Minotauro, who has been a real contender in his time… Just not so much in the UFC. He seems to have been affected by age earlier than a lot of fighters, but it is certainly in his power to put on an impressive performance against Couture. He just needs to return to form.

BetUS puts this fight at -170 for Randy and +140 for Minotauro. Whether or not this is fair really depends on what condition Minotauro is in. If he’s in top form, then these odds are probably quite unfair. If he’s shown to be in a continual decline, though, this fight could easily be taken by Randy. Regardless of how Nogueira shows up, it is probably better value to bet on him as Randy’s odds are almost certainly shortened by his popularity. Also, Nogueira has far more to fight for – Randy can do pretty much anything and still have a career in the UFC, while Nogueira needs to silence his critics to avoid becoming a gatekeeper, at best.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva is a fight that really surprises me in that I’m always shocked to see Jardine as the favorite! BetUS has it -145 Jardine and +115 Silva, but how can you ever confidently pick a fight with Jardine in it? His record is so frustratingly inconsistent, and while he’s entertaining, I would never want to risk money on him when he’s against someone like Thiago Silva. The kid may have lost his last fight, but it was to Lyoto Machida! EVERYONE loses to that guy! Before that, Silva was undefeated in 13 fights, though he hadn’t faced many particularly challenging opponents. Some think that Silva could easily get tricked into brawling… But I think this could be just as bad for Jardine, as Silva is not without knockout ability.

I’m not saying Jardine is a bad fighter. He’s just not someone I would want to risk money on. I think you either have to have faith in Thiago Silva getting the upset in this fight, or else avoid betting on it altogether. He’s an entertaining fighter, but Keith Jardine is not a lucky man. If something can go wrong for him, I pretty much expect it to.

Chris Leben and Jake Rosholt should pretty easily go to Leben, and BetUS have put the fight at -150 for Leben and +120 for Rosholt. Rosholt just doesn’t have the experience that Leben does, and any issues of ring rust are unlikely to swing the fight against Leben, as Rosholt hasn’t fought in a while, either. I don’t think Rosholt will get destroyed or anything, but his chance of winning this seems slim. Of course, that all changes if he gets the fight to the ground and keeps it on the ground. There, he’ll have a much easier time, though Leben has been training hard specifically to avoid being ridden to victory. One would think he’s learned his lesson about that, so I don’t see Rosholt managing to keep Leben on the mat.

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is the favorite at BetUS, with -170 and Maia trails at +140. Marquardt has the experience to defeat Maia, but Maia is currently undefeated, even while taking on some of the tougher lower tier fighters in his weight division. A victory for either fighter would likely see him moving up for a possible title shot, but the reputation of each fighter is also going to be harmed by a loss here. I think Marquardt is right as the favorite, but the fight’s not all going to go his way.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski will likely be exciting, with Vera needing to repair his reputation somewhat and Soszynski moving up in the esteem of fight fans with each performance. BetUS gives Vera the edge, with -200 odds. Krzysztof Soszynski is behind at +160, but this is unsurprising given that he is again fighting as a replacement. What’s interesting is that a win for Vera may not mean too much for his career, but a Soszynski win could make for a big career boost. Brandon Vera lost some of his sheen after a couple of losses, but he is still considered to be a talented fighter. Krzysztof Soszynski is on the verge of breaking into the big time, so a win against Vera could see him matched with some higher ranked light heavyweights in the near future. I think Soszynski has a good chance at taking out Vera, but he will have to work hard for it, and is more likely to be convincingly beaten than to pull off a close win against Vera.

The full list of odds offered at BetUS for UFC 102 are:

Randy Couture -170 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +140
Keith Jardine -145 vs. Thiago Silva +115
Chris Leben -150 vs. Jake Rosholt +120
Nate Marquardt -160 vs. Demian Maia +130
Brandon Vera -200 vs. Krzysztof Soszynski +160
Ed Herman -135 vs. Aaron Simpson +105
Gabriel Gonzaga -350 vs. Chris Tuchscherer +250
Justin McCully +200 vs. Mike Russow -260
Tim Hague +125 vs. Todd Duffee -155
Nick Catone +160 vs. Mark Munoz -200

Some of these odds have changed pretty dramatically in the space of a week, mostly seeing the odds shorten on a lot of fighters, though there are notable exceptions such as Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson, and even the Couture/Nogueira fight. It just goes to show that it pays to watch the odds at sportsbooks, and to work out the right timing in order to place the bets you wish to make when they offer the best payoff to money wagered. Here’s to the end of August, and a busy month of MMA, with UFC 102.