The main event will see Dan Hardy finally challenge welterweight champion Georges St Pierre, after several months of smack talk. No matter what Hardy’s chances actually are, he sure knows how to foster interest in a fight.

This fight is getting odds of -800 GSP to +500 Dan Hardy. That is insane, but unsurprising. Hardy has not been spectacular in his little title run. He’s mostly just been vocal and won close decisions. His striking is good, but not stellar, and his ground work is decent, allowing him to avoid damage from the bottom while he works on getting back up. Unless he has just been trying to lull GSP into a false sense of security with the marginal wins he’s taken in his last few fights, the belt will be staying with the Canadian champion for a while yet.

The other big fight on this card is Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin, which I have been looking forward to so very, very much. This fight is getting odds of -160 Mir to +130 Carwin. Is it that close? I don’t think so. I think Mir takes this one, especially with his recently increased muscle mass.

Sure, Shane Carwin is currently undefeated after 11 fights, but he only really began to face quality opposition in his last fight against Gabriel Gonzaga. That was now over a year ago, as Carwin has been waiting on a title shot against Brock Lesnar, so it will be interesting to see if Carwin suffers from ring rust. Mir last fought in December, and he has mostly fought the best UFC heavyweights for the past few years. Carwin could win this one with a surprise KO, but a Mir win via submission seems more likely.

Another important welterweight fight at UFC 111 is Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves. Both have already lost to GSP in title fights, but both are also well-positioned to challenge again. This fight has odds of -140 Alves to +110 Fitch at some bookies, and it really is looking like a coin flip of a fight. If it stays standing, Alves takes it easily, but the same goes for Fitch if the fight hits the ground. Fitch has the advantage of a previous win as well, though it was an unusual victory that was mostly due to an up kick hitting home on a standing Alves. A more likely end to this fight will be a KO victory for Alves or a decision win for Fitch.

The last fight I’d like to look at is Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham, which isn’t getting any love from bookies, but it is an interesting fight. Diaz has moved up to welterweight after some trouble remaining competitive at lightweight. Markham is a solid welterweight fighter, but he hasn’t set the world on fire. This is a much better fight for Diaz than his recent match ups have been, as Markham is very much a striker. Wrestlers have manhandled Diaz at lightweight, and we will only really know whether the increase in weight has helped him after he goes up against a good wrestler, but this theoretically easy fight for Diaz should be a good introduction to a heavier weight division. I expect either a spectacular submission or a spectacular knockout.

April is another so-so month for the UFC in terms of the number of events, but at least it will feature a card with two championship matches and another major Strikeforce event. I guess I’m one of those people who doesn’t think you can oversaturate the market with MMA content.

Let’s begin with what’s on offer at BetUS:

Brock Lesnar -240 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -300 vs. Thiago Alves +220
Dan Henderson -220 vs. Michael Bisping +175
Jon Fitch -500 vs. Paulo Thiago +350
Yoshihiro Akiyama -300 vs. Alan Belcher +220
Stephan Bonnar -350 vs. Mark Coleman +250
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -450 vs. Jake O’Brien +325

BetUS is also offering prop bets on whether the Lesnar vs. Mir fight will go the distance and what round it might end in. Going by the odds on those bets, it must be widely expected that there’ll be some kind of stoppage.

Interestingly, the Henderson vs. Bisping fight has seen the odds constantly shifting. Last week, they were -230 for Henderson and +180 for Bisping, then moved to -240 for Henderson and +185 for Bisping, and now they have shortened down to their current levels. Could this be UK bettors influencing the odds, or are people starting to give Bisping more credit in the lead up to the fight?

Now, let’s look at what Bodog is offering:

Brock Lesnar -250 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -280 vs. Thiago Alves +220
Dan Henderson -210 vs. Michael Bisping +170
Jon Fitch -600 vs. Paulo Thiago +400
Yoshihiro Akiyama -265 vs. Alan Belcher +205
Stephan Bonnar -365 vs. Mark Coleman +285
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -500 vs. Jake O’Brien +300
Shannon Gugerty -140 vs. Matt Grice +110
CB Dolloway -265 vs. Tom Lawlor +205
Dong Hyun Kim -265 vs. TJ Grant +205

Looks like Georges St. Pierre is not as favored as he was before. Everyone, including myself, is starting to listen to how potentially dangerous Thiago Alves could be for GSP.

Again, the Henderson/Bisping fight sees the odds turning in favor of Bisping. It also looks like Alan Belcher is getting some more respect, with a huge change of the odds on Akiyama to -265 from -300 and Belcher going from +240 to +205.

Finally, the odds at Sportsbook.com are:

Brock Lesnar -240 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -270 vs. Thiago Alves +210
Dan Henderson -200 vs. Michael Bisping +160
Jon Fitch -500 vs. Paulo Thiago +300
Yoshihiro Akiyama -270 vs. Alan Belcher +210
Stephan Bonnar -325 vs. Mark Coleman +250
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -500 vs. Jake O’Brien +300
Shannon Gugerty -140 vs. Matt Grice +110
CB Dolloway -240 vs. Tom Lawlor +190
Dong Hyun Kim -275 vs. TJ Grant +215

Unsurprisingly, Bisping is getting shorter odds as the fight approaches, down from +180 to +160. Oddly, though, Mir has even less love than before, up from +175 to +190. Again it would seem that GSP must be losing some of his support from bettors learning to fear the power of Thiago Alves, with GSP’s odds moving from -290 to -270.

Don’t forget to place your bets before the fights start and be sure to book your pay-per-view seat for UFC 100 on Saturday, 11 July.

Frank denies the high five

Two men enter, both leave… Okay, it ain’t exactly Thunderdome, but UFC 100 is looking to be pretty spectacular.

The biggest event for many on 11 July will be the Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir fight. I’m just going to put it out there now that I am shocked to see Lesnar as the favorite for this fight. At BetUS, he’s -240 to Mir’s +190. Mir is the same at Bodog, but Lesnar is even more strongly favored there at -250. At Sportsbook.com, they have Lesnar at -215 and Mir at +175.

Lesnar may be the current heavyweight champion, but Frank Mir wasn’t being all that cocky when he said Lesnar was wearing his belt. The title shot Brock Lesnar got was very unusual, especially considering his short MMA record. He lost to Frank Mir in one of his fights, and he’s only had four in total. The only champion level MMA competition he has beaten is Randy Couture, who is in his mid-forties and hadn’t fought in over a year when they met. Sure, Couture is an excellent fighter, but Lesnar should have been put through a lot more other fighters before getting that title shot. If he had been, I’m doubtful that Randy would still have been the title holder, and I think Lesnar would have had a much more difficult time in taking the title.

Frank Mir has been champion before and his form has improved incredibly since then. He’s had to earn this title shot, and has a victory over Lesnar already. While people say that Lesnar was controlling the fight before Mir got the kneebar on him, they seem to forget that the fight only lasted a minute and half. If you can’t avoid being submitted in the first half of the first round, you have a serious hole in your game. Claims that Lesnar gave Mir that kneebar just make the situation worse, as no one competent in submissions just gives an opportunity away.

Anyway, enough ranting about Brock Lesnar being overrated. He isn’t a bad fighter, just overrated for now, and he could be freakishly good in the future. Yes, he has strength, but every heavyweight has strength. Practically nothing else is known about him other than his wrestling, his right hand and his strength. I think that a bet on Mir is much better value than a bet on Lesnar, as there is massive potential for an upset in this fight.

The next biggest fight is going to be between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Now, while I agree with most that GSP is set to win, I also think that this could easily turn into the best fight on the card. Thiago Alves has victories over crazy-good competition, including Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. I don’t believe he is anywhere near the freakishly talented GSP, however, which is why I wouldn’t bet on this fight. BetUS has GSP at -300, Bodog has him at -340 and Sportsbook.com has him at -290. Alves is at +220 at BetUS, +260 at Bodog, and +230 at Sportsbook.com. For those who simply must bet on the fight (just don’t!), I’d put a small bet on Alves, as he has just enough of a chance to win this with striking, coupled with long enough odds to make the payoff worthwhile. I would bet a very, very, very small amount, however, as I am much more convinced that GSP will win in dominant fashion.

The fight I’m looking forward to most is Bisping vs. Henderson. Is it to see Michael Bisping finally shut his big mouth? Nope, it’s hopefully to see him run it even more and get a title shot against Anderson Silva! Also, if he wins, it will complete the TUF 9 victory of the UK. I know that doesn’t mean much to American MMA fans, but it’s a great sign for everyone else, as it signals a possible end to the complete dominance of fighters from the Americas.

So, who will win when Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson enter the cage? I want to say Bisping, obviously, but many would disagree. There are good reasons to favor Bisping, however, as the odds on this fight are very likely to be out of whack with the reality of it.

BetUS has Henderson at -230, Bodog has him at -250, and Sportsbook.com has him at -225. Bisping is at +180 at BetUS, +190 at Bodog, and +185 at Sportsbook.com. I can’t blame anyone for setting odds like this due to Dan Henderson’s impressive history, but he hasn’t exactly shined since coming to the UFC. Aside from his win over Rich Franklin, Henderson hasn’t defeated the top competition he has come up against in the UFC. Now, I’m not comparing Bisping to Quinton Jackson or Anderson Silva (at least not yet), but Henderson’s winning ways have not been the same since his championship days in PRIDE. I think Bisping is a much better fighter than some give him credit for, with the Matt Hamill fight having been something of a curse for his reputation. Henderson isn’t going to get destroyed in this fight, but I do think he is going to lose to decision or submission to Mike Bisping.

UFC 100 is looking to be good because of just how full of potentially excellent fights it is. Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago is a well-matched fight, with both possessing excellent records. Paulo Thiago is currently undefeated, and Jon Fitch’s only recent loss was to Georges St. Pierre. Paulo Thiago could gain a title shot quite quickly if he takes out Jon Fitch, but Fitch will be motivated to win this fight to avoid a role as a gatekeeper. BetUS has this fight for Fitch at -450, Bodog has him -500, and Sportsbook.com has him at -365. Paulo Thiago is at +325 at BetUS, +300 at Bodog, and +285 at Sportsbook.com. Thiago hasn’t really been able to prove himself against much heavy competition yet, with really only a win against Josh Koscheck to give him a reputation in the UFC, but I think these odds are a little too strongly in favor of Fitch. Nevertheless, I imagine Fitch will actually win. I’d avoid a bet here, as there are too many unknowns about Paulo Thiago.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher is a fight that some will have been anticipating with baited breath. This will be Akiyama’s UFC debut, and he is considered one of the better middleweight fighters in the world. Belcher has a much longer history in the UFC, but the sportsbooks are still favoring Akiyama. I’d have to say I agree with them. BetUS and Bodog have Akiyama at -300, and Sportsbook.com has him at -340. Belcher is at +220 with BetUS, +240 with Bodog, and +260 with Sportsbook.com.

There are a couple of potentially interesting fights in the preliminary card, but the one I’m interested in is Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman. I’m unfortunately agreeing with the sportsbooks again in saying that Bonnar will win this one. At BetUS he’s -350, he’s -365 at Bodog, and -325 at Sportsbook.com. Coleman is +250 at BetUS and Sportsbook.com, and +285 at Bodog. I wouldn’t bet on this fight, as I think Coleman’s odds are a bit too short to be honest. He was a fine fighter back in his day, but Stephan Bonnar should certainly be more than a match for him currently.

There are many other fights, but I might take a look at them closer to the event. Remember to look for the most favorable odds for the bets you want to make, and don’t just bet blindly on favorites or underdogs. We’ll talk more about MMA shortly.