The main event will see Dan Hardy finally challenge welterweight champion Georges St Pierre, after several months of smack talk. No matter what Hardy’s chances actually are, he sure knows how to foster interest in a fight.

This fight is getting odds of -800 GSP to +500 Dan Hardy. That is insane, but unsurprising. Hardy has not been spectacular in his little title run. He’s mostly just been vocal and won close decisions. His striking is good, but not stellar, and his ground work is decent, allowing him to avoid damage from the bottom while he works on getting back up. Unless he has just been trying to lull GSP into a false sense of security with the marginal wins he’s taken in his last few fights, the belt will be staying with the Canadian champion for a while yet.

The other big fight on this card is Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin, which I have been looking forward to so very, very much. This fight is getting odds of -160 Mir to +130 Carwin. Is it that close? I don’t think so. I think Mir takes this one, especially with his recently increased muscle mass.

Sure, Shane Carwin is currently undefeated after 11 fights, but he only really began to face quality opposition in his last fight against Gabriel Gonzaga. That was now over a year ago, as Carwin has been waiting on a title shot against Brock Lesnar, so it will be interesting to see if Carwin suffers from ring rust. Mir last fought in December, and he has mostly fought the best UFC heavyweights for the past few years. Carwin could win this one with a surprise KO, but a Mir win via submission seems more likely.

Another important welterweight fight at UFC 111 is Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves. Both have already lost to GSP in title fights, but both are also well-positioned to challenge again. This fight has odds of -140 Alves to +110 Fitch at some bookies, and it really is looking like a coin flip of a fight. If it stays standing, Alves takes it easily, but the same goes for Fitch if the fight hits the ground. Fitch has the advantage of a previous win as well, though it was an unusual victory that was mostly due to an up kick hitting home on a standing Alves. A more likely end to this fight will be a KO victory for Alves or a decision win for Fitch.

The last fight I’d like to look at is Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham, which isn’t getting any love from bookies, but it is an interesting fight. Diaz has moved up to welterweight after some trouble remaining competitive at lightweight. Markham is a solid welterweight fighter, but he hasn’t set the world on fire. This is a much better fight for Diaz than his recent match ups have been, as Markham is very much a striker. Wrestlers have manhandled Diaz at lightweight, and we will only really know whether the increase in weight has helped him after he goes up against a good wrestler, but this theoretically easy fight for Diaz should be a good introduction to a heavier weight division. I expect either a spectacular submission or a spectacular knockout.

April is another so-so month for the UFC in terms of the number of events, but at least it will feature a card with two championship matches and another major Strikeforce event. I guess I’m one of those people who doesn’t think you can oversaturate the market with MMA content.

The Wrestlebeast smells blood.

All levity aside, Lesnar was in a really bad way when he was first diagnosed with diverticulosis, but no operation was necessary and he has been given a clean bill of health. On ESPN, Dana White announced that Lesnar’s return will see him face the winner of Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin, or the winner of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez if the winner of Mir/Carwin sustains an injury.

Lesnar could not intake enough nutrients given his affliction, and he was probably operating at just over half his true potential. Also, he was still 248 pounds at his lightest, and he is back up to 273 pounds now. That’s pretty incredible, and it’s a sign that his body naturally sits at that massive weight. Unfortunately, considering he was struggling to take in enough nutrients before, this could also mean he’ll get bigger and may end up having to cut a lot of weight. We’ll have to wait and see about that, though.

Now, let’s consider the implications of Brock’s return. First of all, he’s keeping his title, though Mir and Carwin will be fighting for an interim title. Secondly, Lesnar has acknowledged Frank Mir as his stalker, and he welcomes another fight with Frank. I think this is hubris, as it’s a dangerous fight for everyone, including the UFC. If Brock wins, Mir is out of title contention, but he’ll certainly be able to eliminate potential contenders. If Mir wins, there’s no way it’ll be the end of his fights with Lesnar. People will just claim that Lesnar wasn’t ready to come back into such a tough fight, and yet another rematch will be certain. Lesnar and Mir would be forever entwined, Lesnar raining down hammerfists while Mir works for a leglock.

Next, while Lesnar says the heavyweight division is getting nervous about his return, I actually think this sickness has robbed him of his mystique. Before, everyone feared whether he was beatable. Now there are several heavyweights considered capable of challenging him and maybe even defeating him. This is good news for the UFC, as now any challengers to the title will seem more legitimate. While an undefeatable fighting machine can be a good image for a champion, there are enough of those as it is. A human Brock Lesnar makes the heavyweight division look like it is full of legitimate challengers, which means better marketing, and a greater legacy for Lesnar if he beats them.

Still waiting for Strikeforce: Miami and I guess UFC 109 will be good too? I don’t know, I’m too excited for UFC 110, which is such a stacked card. Seriously, UFC 110 is ridiculous in terms of fanboy appeal. While the fights are kind of meaningless in terms of title contention, they’re all exciting on paper. Anyway, more news on upcoming events closer to the dates they’ll be held.

Before the Penn/Sanchez fight, I had my doubts about whether Sanchez had any path to victory. I figured there was a slight chance he could edge out a decision if things kept standing and he was careful to get the attention of the judges. My gut feeling said that he was hopelessly out of his depth, but I’ve never really liked Diego, so I figured my instincts were too harsh. Well, I was wrong, but only in doubting my feelings about Diego Sanchez. He was utterly destroyed by BJ Penn in just over 4 rounds, the fight being stopped due to Sanchez losing enough blood from his face to fill an Olympic swimming pool.

Sanchez never had any business fighting for the lightweight title at this stage in his lightweight career. He had wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. Stevenson is certainly something, but this was during his period of being crap, and Clay Guida is not an elite fighter – at least not when “capable of challenging BJ Penn” is the necessary requirement for excellence in your division. I think this is the beginning of the end for Diego Sanchez, as he works on a checkered record going up against the true contenders of the lightweight division.

In other news, Frank Mir reminded everyone that he still has the skills to pay said bills. I thought he’d beat Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, which was remarkably naïve now that I think about it. Having said that, Mir has clearly worked on correcting strength disparities, and his victory over Cheick Kongo is testament to his dedication to getting a rubber match with Lesnar. He choked the guy unconscious! What is with fighters recently not tapping out to chokes before they pass out?

The last UFC event of the year/first of next year is UFC 108 on 2 January, AKA The Cursed Card. Injuries galore have changed the line-up of this card over 9000 times already. It’s gotten to the point where people are half expecting it to be cancelled, though that seems a little bit harsh. The current (and hopefully final) main event for UFC 108 will be a match between Rahad Evans and Thiago Silva. This fight is getting odds of -220 Evans to +175 Silva at BetUS, which may favor Rashad a little too much. Nevertheless, Evans should certainly have the edge, with a career fighting much better opposition than Thiago Silva.

Commenting on the rest of the card doesn’t seem too wise just yet, due to the changes that have occurred. Let’s just say that this hardly seems like a card worthy of ringing in a new decade, but what are you going to do? Fighters get hurt sometimes. It’s just odd that so many have been hurt now. Perhaps there’d be value in the UFC having an off-season.

Well, I don’t think it would shock anyone to see Penn keep his belt. What can Sanchez do, exactly, that BJ isn’t capable of neutralizing or doing better? Takedown Penn? Not gonna happen. Reverse Penn? Not gonna happen. Outstrike the champ? Not gonna happen. Diego Sanchez defeated a lazy Joe Stevenson and the lackluster Clay Guida to get here, with his win over Guida coming as a split decision. While he is certainly capable of playing with better fighters at lightweight, Sanchez has done nothing so far to prove he has what it takes to defeat BJ Penn. Sure, Penn’s cardio continues to look suspect, but I don’t think this is going into championship rounds. Is Diego Sanchez going to get owned? YUS!

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo could get interesting if Mir hasn’t focused on training to beat Kongo rather than a rematch with Hulk- I mean Brock Lesnar. Really, the superior ground skills of Mir should win this, but Kongo is no slouch. An expert striker with great reach, Kongo will definitely have the advantage standing, and probably in the clinch. I think Mir should take this fight, but he just needs to have prepared to take Kongo down and have prepared for a rematch against Lesnar.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce I have no qualms about giving to Fitch. Pierce may be on a 6 fight win streak, but his major wins are over fighters that are proving not to live up to the potential they showed earlier in their careers. I have a bad feeling that Fitch is getting used as a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division. This is a big mistake, as the man is a genuine contender. He’ll destroy most other fighters at welterweight, so why feed a possible up-and-comer to this monster?

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida looks set to put Florian on the path to being a gatekeeper for the lightweight division, while setting Guida on the path to retirement… or at least to getting dropped from the UFC. Florian is a better fighter than Guida, who has a UFC record of 5 wins, 4 losses. It’s not that the guy’s bad – he’s just not a contender, and he isn’t quite consistent enough to keep the riff raff out of the top of the division. Florian will take the fight handily, but Guida will put up a struggle and should make this entertaining.

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve will see Buentello make his UFC return. This fight is kind of hard to pick. Struve could potentially rise above his currently iffy record, but he will have to defeat the veteran Buentello first. Both fighters are well versed in kickboxing, and both have many wins by submission. In the end, I’d have to say this fight goes to Buentello if it remains standing, but to Struve if they hit the ground. Overall, I think Struve will take it, managing to hold his own standing before getting Buentello down and finishing him with a submission from there.

The UFC 107 undercard will not be showing any fights on Spike TV, which is too bad, as the Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia fight should be interesting. This is the last UFC event of the year, but Strikeforce and K-1/Dream still have events in December. Other good news is that the Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping match for UFC 110 seems to be a go, but it looks like it won’t be the main event – that honor could now go to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez! Australia is getting a high quality card in February.

Let’s begin with what’s on offer at BetUS:

Brock Lesnar -240 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -300 vs. Thiago Alves +220
Dan Henderson -220 vs. Michael Bisping +175
Jon Fitch -500 vs. Paulo Thiago +350
Yoshihiro Akiyama -300 vs. Alan Belcher +220
Stephan Bonnar -350 vs. Mark Coleman +250
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -450 vs. Jake O’Brien +325

BetUS is also offering prop bets on whether the Lesnar vs. Mir fight will go the distance and what round it might end in. Going by the odds on those bets, it must be widely expected that there’ll be some kind of stoppage.

Interestingly, the Henderson vs. Bisping fight has seen the odds constantly shifting. Last week, they were -230 for Henderson and +180 for Bisping, then moved to -240 for Henderson and +185 for Bisping, and now they have shortened down to their current levels. Could this be UK bettors influencing the odds, or are people starting to give Bisping more credit in the lead up to the fight?

Now, let’s look at what Bodog is offering:

Brock Lesnar -250 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -280 vs. Thiago Alves +220
Dan Henderson -210 vs. Michael Bisping +170
Jon Fitch -600 vs. Paulo Thiago +400
Yoshihiro Akiyama -265 vs. Alan Belcher +205
Stephan Bonnar -365 vs. Mark Coleman +285
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -500 vs. Jake O’Brien +300
Shannon Gugerty -140 vs. Matt Grice +110
CB Dolloway -265 vs. Tom Lawlor +205
Dong Hyun Kim -265 vs. TJ Grant +205

Looks like Georges St. Pierre is not as favored as he was before. Everyone, including myself, is starting to listen to how potentially dangerous Thiago Alves could be for GSP.

Again, the Henderson/Bisping fight sees the odds turning in favor of Bisping. It also looks like Alan Belcher is getting some more respect, with a huge change of the odds on Akiyama to -265 from -300 and Belcher going from +240 to +205.

Finally, the odds at Sportsbook.com are:

Brock Lesnar -240 vs. Frank Mir +190
Georges St. Pierre -270 vs. Thiago Alves +210
Dan Henderson -200 vs. Michael Bisping +160
Jon Fitch -500 vs. Paulo Thiago +300
Yoshihiro Akiyama -270 vs. Alan Belcher +210
Stephan Bonnar -325 vs. Mark Coleman +250
Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160
Jon Jones -500 vs. Jake O’Brien +300
Shannon Gugerty -140 vs. Matt Grice +110
CB Dolloway -240 vs. Tom Lawlor +190
Dong Hyun Kim -275 vs. TJ Grant +215

Unsurprisingly, Bisping is getting shorter odds as the fight approaches, down from +180 to +160. Oddly, though, Mir has even less love than before, up from +175 to +190. Again it would seem that GSP must be losing some of his support from bettors learning to fear the power of Thiago Alves, with GSP’s odds moving from -290 to -270.

Don’t forget to place your bets before the fights start and be sure to book your pay-per-view seat for UFC 100 on Saturday, 11 July.

Frank denies the high five

Two men enter, both leave… Okay, it ain’t exactly Thunderdome, but UFC 100 is looking to be pretty spectacular.

The biggest event for many on 11 July will be the Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir fight. I’m just going to put it out there now that I am shocked to see Lesnar as the favorite for this fight. At BetUS, he’s -240 to Mir’s +190. Mir is the same at Bodog, but Lesnar is even more strongly favored there at -250. At Sportsbook.com, they have Lesnar at -215 and Mir at +175.

Lesnar may be the current heavyweight champion, but Frank Mir wasn’t being all that cocky when he said Lesnar was wearing his belt. The title shot Brock Lesnar got was very unusual, especially considering his short MMA record. He lost to Frank Mir in one of his fights, and he’s only had four in total. The only champion level MMA competition he has beaten is Randy Couture, who is in his mid-forties and hadn’t fought in over a year when they met. Sure, Couture is an excellent fighter, but Lesnar should have been put through a lot more other fighters before getting that title shot. If he had been, I’m doubtful that Randy would still have been the title holder, and I think Lesnar would have had a much more difficult time in taking the title.

Frank Mir has been champion before and his form has improved incredibly since then. He’s had to earn this title shot, and has a victory over Lesnar already. While people say that Lesnar was controlling the fight before Mir got the kneebar on him, they seem to forget that the fight only lasted a minute and half. If you can’t avoid being submitted in the first half of the first round, you have a serious hole in your game. Claims that Lesnar gave Mir that kneebar just make the situation worse, as no one competent in submissions just gives an opportunity away.

Anyway, enough ranting about Brock Lesnar being overrated. He isn’t a bad fighter, just overrated for now, and he could be freakishly good in the future. Yes, he has strength, but every heavyweight has strength. Practically nothing else is known about him other than his wrestling, his right hand and his strength. I think that a bet on Mir is much better value than a bet on Lesnar, as there is massive potential for an upset in this fight.

The next biggest fight is going to be between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Now, while I agree with most that GSP is set to win, I also think that this could easily turn into the best fight on the card. Thiago Alves has victories over crazy-good competition, including Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. I don’t believe he is anywhere near the freakishly talented GSP, however, which is why I wouldn’t bet on this fight. BetUS has GSP at -300, Bodog has him at -340 and Sportsbook.com has him at -290. Alves is at +220 at BetUS, +260 at Bodog, and +230 at Sportsbook.com. For those who simply must bet on the fight (just don’t!), I’d put a small bet on Alves, as he has just enough of a chance to win this with striking, coupled with long enough odds to make the payoff worthwhile. I would bet a very, very, very small amount, however, as I am much more convinced that GSP will win in dominant fashion.

The fight I’m looking forward to most is Bisping vs. Henderson. Is it to see Michael Bisping finally shut his big mouth? Nope, it’s hopefully to see him run it even more and get a title shot against Anderson Silva! Also, if he wins, it will complete the TUF 9 victory of the UK. I know that doesn’t mean much to American MMA fans, but it’s a great sign for everyone else, as it signals a possible end to the complete dominance of fighters from the Americas.

So, who will win when Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson enter the cage? I want to say Bisping, obviously, but many would disagree. There are good reasons to favor Bisping, however, as the odds on this fight are very likely to be out of whack with the reality of it.

BetUS has Henderson at -230, Bodog has him at -250, and Sportsbook.com has him at -225. Bisping is at +180 at BetUS, +190 at Bodog, and +185 at Sportsbook.com. I can’t blame anyone for setting odds like this due to Dan Henderson’s impressive history, but he hasn’t exactly shined since coming to the UFC. Aside from his win over Rich Franklin, Henderson hasn’t defeated the top competition he has come up against in the UFC. Now, I’m not comparing Bisping to Quinton Jackson or Anderson Silva (at least not yet), but Henderson’s winning ways have not been the same since his championship days in PRIDE. I think Bisping is a much better fighter than some give him credit for, with the Matt Hamill fight having been something of a curse for his reputation. Henderson isn’t going to get destroyed in this fight, but I do think he is going to lose to decision or submission to Mike Bisping.

UFC 100 is looking to be good because of just how full of potentially excellent fights it is. Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago is a well-matched fight, with both possessing excellent records. Paulo Thiago is currently undefeated, and Jon Fitch’s only recent loss was to Georges St. Pierre. Paulo Thiago could gain a title shot quite quickly if he takes out Jon Fitch, but Fitch will be motivated to win this fight to avoid a role as a gatekeeper. BetUS has this fight for Fitch at -450, Bodog has him -500, and Sportsbook.com has him at -365. Paulo Thiago is at +325 at BetUS, +300 at Bodog, and +285 at Sportsbook.com. Thiago hasn’t really been able to prove himself against much heavy competition yet, with really only a win against Josh Koscheck to give him a reputation in the UFC, but I think these odds are a little too strongly in favor of Fitch. Nevertheless, I imagine Fitch will actually win. I’d avoid a bet here, as there are too many unknowns about Paulo Thiago.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher is a fight that some will have been anticipating with baited breath. This will be Akiyama’s UFC debut, and he is considered one of the better middleweight fighters in the world. Belcher has a much longer history in the UFC, but the sportsbooks are still favoring Akiyama. I’d have to say I agree with them. BetUS and Bodog have Akiyama at -300, and Sportsbook.com has him at -340. Belcher is at +220 with BetUS, +240 with Bodog, and +260 with Sportsbook.com.

There are a couple of potentially interesting fights in the preliminary card, but the one I’m interested in is Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman. I’m unfortunately agreeing with the sportsbooks again in saying that Bonnar will win this one. At BetUS he’s -350, he’s -365 at Bodog, and -325 at Sportsbook.com. Coleman is +250 at BetUS and Sportsbook.com, and +285 at Bodog. I wouldn’t bet on this fight, as I think Coleman’s odds are a bit too short to be honest. He was a fine fighter back in his day, but Stephan Bonnar should certainly be more than a match for him currently.

There are many other fights, but I might take a look at them closer to the event. Remember to look for the most favorable odds for the bets you want to make, and don’t just bet blindly on favorites or underdogs. We’ll talk more about MMA shortly.