This fight is one I don’t really want to pick, as I think Tito will win despite how much I want Forrest to get back into the top of the light heavyweight division. As much as I want a Griffin victory, though, I just do not see him pulling it off if Ortiz really has recovered from his back injuries. It wasn’t as if their last fight was especially close, and Forrest has two losses weighing on his mind that he may not be dealing with. Some sportsbooks are giving odds of -165 Griffin to +135 Ortiz, but I just don’t see how Forrest is going to win this one without getting a knockout in the first exchange, which is hardly something he is known for.

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson depends, as always, on which Josh Koscheck shows up to fight. If Koscheck just focuses on wrestling, it should be a cakewalk for him. If he decides he wants to try standing with Johnson, however, he’ll soon be reminded that most of Johnson’s wins have been by KO or TKO. It should also be noted that Johnson is a massive welterweight who has trouble making weight, as evidenced by what happened before his last fight against Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Koscheck just will not be able to match or withstand the power of an Anthony Johnson striking onslaught, but his wrestling could definitely control the fight and earn the win.

Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett has incredibly close odds of -120 Hazelett and -110 Parisyan. I think Parisyan should have the advantage, but he’s been pretty cocky about his superiority to BJJ practitioners. I really get the feeling he hasn’t taken this fight seriously, and that may be all Hazelett needs to slap on a submission – just a moment when Karo is careless on the ground and makes a perilous mistake. Parisyan should win this fight, but an unchecked ego could be his undoing against the skillful submission artist, Dustin Hazelett.

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni is generally considered to be in Sadollah’s favor. I just can’t agree, despite Baroni’s inability to fight off his back. While Amir won TUF 7, it was hardly an impressive victory given he had already beaten CB Dolloway in his semi-final fight. Sadollah’s next fight was a loss, putting him at 1-1, but you have to give him credit for fighting all of his pro fights in the UFC. With that said, Phil Baroni has a embarrassing record for someone who calls himself ‘The Best EVA!!!’. His boxing and wrestling are decent, though, and I think his greater experience will make him more than just an easy fight for Sadollah. I expect a lot of complaints from fans after this fight of how Baroni has knocked Sadollah out of the UFC, while having no chance of a title shot himself.

The last of the main card UFC 106 fights sees Antonio Rogerio “Little Nog” Nogueira make his UFC debut against Luiz Cane. This Nogueira is the twin brother of Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira, and while not as famous, he has wins over top fighters such as Dan Henderson and Alistair Overeem. Nevertheless, Luiz Cane should prove a challenge, with his dangerous striking and training in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu allowing him to be competitive on the ground with Nogueira, who is most at home there. I think L’il Nog takes this fight, and practically everyone else in the world agrees.

I’m a bit surprised at how much hate this card is getting. It’s as if every fight in the UFC has to be between two major fighters in order to be at all worthwhile. Sure, the cost of PPVs makes every bad fight sting all the worse, but the UFC isn’t putting on terrible shows. I don’t know, maybe I’m weird. I actually think that fights between middle-tier guys who have no chance at winning the title are still great fun to watch if their styles match up well. Anyway, here’s hoping for an event that’s full of excitement.

KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!

Let’s start with the recent drama coming from Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson. Who knows what could happen here. The problem with having a blog when you’re famous is that everything must seem like an announcement. I get the feeling Rampage has yet to make up his mind, and his blog posts have really been more about him working through this decision. The current outlook on the Evans vs. Jackson fight looks good, though, as Rampage seems averse to letting fans down. After all, it’s his MMA fans going to see him in his early movies that will make him seem like a bankable actor in the future.

Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic also seems uncertain on his retirement plans, but it’s looking pretty likely the high kicking Croatian will call it a day. A recent quote in particular suggested it’s really just a matter of time: “I’m entering a cage and thinking about fishing in Privlaka.” If he isn’t retired right now, then he’s certainly in the mindset to move on from fighting. He’ll leave us with plenty of highlight reel footage thanks to his dominant striking in Pride, but not from his UFC fights, unfortunately.

Frank Trigg will likely be released from the UFC shortly, thanks to a terrible performance against Josh Koscheck. Trigg plans to retire if the rumors are true. In his own words: “If the UFC cuts me, I’m done fighting. I don’t have the strength or determination to go fight in the minor leagues anymore. I’ve done it before.” It’s sound thinking. He was preparing for one last shot at glory in the biggest promotion around, and he didn’t make it. Why go back to what you were unsatisfied with?

Some other fighters I think will retire soon are Randy Couture (That’s not a shocking guess, but COME ON! How does the man manage to keep fighting?) and possibly Forrest Griffin. Not in the really near future, but within a year or so. For both I think it all depends on their next fights. If they win, they’ll continue, but Couture must surely be feeling too old by now for this kind of punishment and Griffin seems far too bitter after the Anderson Silva fight. Randy’s eventual retirement is a foregone conclusion, given his contract, but what Forrest will decide to do is harder to gauge. A third loss in a row could just send him overboard, and I don’t know if he’d come back from that.

Well, it’s a long wait until UFC 104, but at least WEC 43 is coming up soon. I have a feeling this could be the event that marks the end of the WEC, as it seems doomed to such spectacular monetary failure that folding it into the UFC will be appear to be the only sound option.

The BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian fight doesn’t seem to have enough hype. While it is certainly true that BJ Penn is a talented monster overshadowing the lightweight division, Kenny Florian poses a genuine risk. Sure, he wasn’t all that impressive when he started out in the UFC, but he’s recently come into his own. It promises to be an excellent fight if both guys come in at the top of their game. Everything points to that being the case, with both fighters hungry to win – Florian to prove he is a legitimate talent and champion, Penn to recover from his loss to GSP.

Sportsbooks are giving the fight to Penn, which is perfectly understandable. BetUS has the fight as -230 for Penn and +180 for Florian. There is definitely good reason to believe that Florian could win, but I would never suggest a bet against BJ Penn at lightweight until it has been proven that his ability has declined at that weight. Plenty of fighters gave him flack over his apparent lack of cardio in his fight against GSP, but I don’t think his welterweight bouts have ever provided useful information about his lightweight performance. The weight change just seems to produce a completely different fighter. I think BJ Penn is most likely to win, unless Florian gets a lucky cut on him.

While the lightweight title defense is exciting, I’m looking forward to the Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin fight much more. The only way I see it not being exciting is if someone gets a knockout in the first 10 seconds, and even that would be interesting. Forrest Griffin doesn’t quit until the fight is over, one way or another, and Anderson Silva is always impressive against fighters like that. Silva is the favorite at BetUS, with -350 odds to Griffin’s +250, and that seems about right. Silva is a better all-round fighter than Griffin, so unless the weight change has severely affected him, it’s almost certain that the fight will go his way. I think it’ll go to decision, as I don’t believe Griffin will be completely outclassed, but any decision is going to come out in favor of Anderson Silva’s ridiculously accurate striking.

Personally, I’m not too interested in that many other fights on the main card. Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino could be good, but I’m more interested in Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida. Both of these fights seem to pit talented mid-tier fighters against one another, and I think that many of the most sincerely fought battles occur at that level of talent. Also, I’ll admit I’m interested in the Grove vs. Almeida fight because I recently started Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and I think that fight is going to stay on the ground.

This is going to be a great month for MMA fans, with so many major events. The unfortunate death of Affliction at the end of July wasn’t great news, but it has seen a lot of up-and-coming fighters taken into the UFC and WEC, and Fedor Emelianenko is moving to Strikeforce, where people may get to see him fight without forking out for a pay-per-view. Later in the week, I’ll take a look at WEC 42 as well, which will see a bantamweight championship bout between dominant Miguel Torres and Brian Bowles.

The most popular man in MMA- wait, no

After Josh Barnett pulled out of his fight with Fedor Emelianenko due to testing positive for drugs, Affliction: Trilogy was looking shaky. Now both the event and the promotional arm of the company are gone.

Affliction has decided to focus on its fashion label, even working with the UFC, and has abandoned its MMA promotions. This has led to many fighters yet again being out of a contract. It has to be terrible news for those fighters who were burnt by the EliteXC debacle earlier, and even worse news for fighters who have blown their chances with the UFC.

One possible upside to this is that Fedor Emelianenko’s management may now have enough pressure on them to strike a deal with the UFC. Emelianenko has been getting paid very handsomely by the promotions he’s worked with of late.  Despite problems that the UFC might have with the paychecks Fedor is after, it is likely the many restrictions a UFC contract would place him under are actually the biggest barrier to a Fedor UFC fight. He might accept less money for the exposure, just not if the UFC restrict him from leveraging that exposure for all it’s worth.

While the UFC, and Dana White particularly, cop flack for not making enough exceptions to their normal negotiations in order to sign Fedor, it should be noted that they are in a position of power. While Fedor’s management may have been able to negotiate generous contracts with smaller promotions, this is because Fedor’s management has been in the position of power in such instances. The thinking of smaller promotions has been that Fedor Emelianenko is sure money in the bank due to how well-regarded he is.

Those small promotions have reasoned they need Fedor in order to have the advantage – the UFC has many more advantages, though, and thus does not depend on signing Fedor. Dana White is smart enough to know that there are plenty of advantages in signing Emelianenko under a normal UFC contract, and even in paying him what he asks, but he also knows that the UFC is the one with the power, not Fedor.

Additionally, Fedor’s management are clearly trying to leverage his success and pull as a way of increasing the power of M-1 Global. Insistence on cross-promotion is incredibly unreasonable when dealing with as big a force as the UFC. I’m all for more strong MMA promotions, I just wish that they would stop trying to compete directly with the UFC from the outset and stick by a business plan that aims at stable growth in the long term, not a quick rise to dominance. If Affliction confirms anything for us, it is that the attempts of upstart promotions to try and force success through mere star power just will not work for MMA.

With no more Affliction this Saturday, August just became a bit more manageable. The next big event will be UFC 101 on 8 August, which promises the fight between Forrest Griffin and Anderson Silva. Regardless of if Silva wins as expected, Griffin should at least offer the kind of resistance that makes for an incredible fight. Silva’s recent challenger, Thales Leites, seemed terrified of getting stopped or hurt, but Forrest Griffin seemingly has no regard for pain in the ring. Let’s hope that translates into a vicious fight at light heavyweight.