Sure, Strikeforce may find they are unable to afford Fedor if the Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers card on Saturday doesn’t bring in enough viewers, but at least a wider audience will be exposed to Russia’s greatest gift to MMA. Sportsbooks are wisely calling the fight for Fedor, at odds of as much as -550 for Fedor compared to Brett Rogers at +375.

What needs to be said about Fedor Emelianenko? If you’re reading this, you’re likely familiar with his work, but let’s take a look at why he has often placed well on pound-for-pound listings. First of all, his record is near flawless. His only loss was due to an illegal elbow cutting him open, and a tournament format that did not allow for No Contests. Secondly, he has defeated many of the top heavyweights such as Andrei Arlovski, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He also has wins over well-known names like Matt Lindland, Kevin Randleman, and Renato Sobral.

Now that you are refreshed on why Fedor is so highly regarded, let’s take a look at his opponent. Brett Rogers is undefeated in 10 fights, including a win over former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski. All his fights have been ended within the distance with strikes, so he’s an exciting fighter, but this does make it hard to gauge his fitness. Rogers is big, at 6 feet 5 inches and 265lbs, much larger than Fedor. If he’s to have a chance of winning, I think he’ll have to KO Fedor early in the game, or else he’ll gas out before the end.

Moving on from the main event, the Fedor vs Rogers card will also feature the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship bout between Jake Shields and Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller. Shields is the oddsmakers’ favorite at -300 to Mayhem’s +220 at some sportsbooks, but few fans think the fight realistically looks so one-sided. Yes, Shields is on a 12 fight win streak, but Mayhem is a much larger fighter and curiously resistant to submissions. It is fair to guess that this will end in a unanimous decision victory for Shields, it’s just not fair to discount Mayhem’s stand up game, as it might put Shields in danger.

I’m not all that interested in the other main card fights in this show. Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou is fan pandering, as Sokoudjou doesn’t stand a chance. The bookies agree, with Mousasi at -500 and Sokoudjou at +350. Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva will only be interesting in terms of outcome, as a win for Silva will really benefit his career and help to get him back on track, while a win for Werdum is unlikely to be very meaningful.

To finish up, it’s worth taking a brief look at the ShoMMA card on 6 November. Obviously this is nowhere near as big an event as the proper Strikeforce show the next day, but the main event of Jorge Gurgel vs. Billy Evangelista is a smart fight to use as a headline for a minor card. Jorge Gurgel is recognizable due to his appearance on the second season of TUF, and his Fight of the Night performances in the UFC. Putting him up against Billy Evangelista makes for an intriguing fight, as Evangelista is one of the most promising up-and-coming Strikeforce fighters with an undefeated record. While this fight would not be compelling on a regular Strikeforce card, it should be a decent draw for ShoMMA. I think this one will go to Evangelista by decision, unless Gurgel decides to actually use his ground skills rather than trying to scrap.

Next week, there’ll be another UFC event, one filled with British fighters. It’s a bit odd that the main event is Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera given that UFC 105 is in Manchester, but almost every other bout has a well known English fighter, so it seems unlikely that this will have anything other than a huge turnout. Honestly, if the UK press don’t go crazy for this event, I’ll be shocked.

The most popular man in MMA- wait, no

After Josh Barnett pulled out of his fight with Fedor Emelianenko due to testing positive for drugs, Affliction: Trilogy was looking shaky. Now both the event and the promotional arm of the company are gone.

Affliction has decided to focus on its fashion label, even working with the UFC, and has abandoned its MMA promotions. This has led to many fighters yet again being out of a contract. It has to be terrible news for those fighters who were burnt by the EliteXC debacle earlier, and even worse news for fighters who have blown their chances with the UFC.

One possible upside to this is that Fedor Emelianenko’s management may now have enough pressure on them to strike a deal with the UFC. Emelianenko has been getting paid very handsomely by the promotions he’s worked with of late.  Despite problems that the UFC might have with the paychecks Fedor is after, it is likely the many restrictions a UFC contract would place him under are actually the biggest barrier to a Fedor UFC fight. He might accept less money for the exposure, just not if the UFC restrict him from leveraging that exposure for all it’s worth.

While the UFC, and Dana White particularly, cop flack for not making enough exceptions to their normal negotiations in order to sign Fedor, it should be noted that they are in a position of power. While Fedor’s management may have been able to negotiate generous contracts with smaller promotions, this is because Fedor’s management has been in the position of power in such instances. The thinking of smaller promotions has been that Fedor Emelianenko is sure money in the bank due to how well-regarded he is.

Those small promotions have reasoned they need Fedor in order to have the advantage – the UFC has many more advantages, though, and thus does not depend on signing Fedor. Dana White is smart enough to know that there are plenty of advantages in signing Emelianenko under a normal UFC contract, and even in paying him what he asks, but he also knows that the UFC is the one with the power, not Fedor.

Additionally, Fedor’s management are clearly trying to leverage his success and pull as a way of increasing the power of M-1 Global. Insistence on cross-promotion is incredibly unreasonable when dealing with as big a force as the UFC. I’m all for more strong MMA promotions, I just wish that they would stop trying to compete directly with the UFC from the outset and stick by a business plan that aims at stable growth in the long term, not a quick rise to dominance. If Affliction confirms anything for us, it is that the attempts of upstart promotions to try and force success through mere star power just will not work for MMA.

With no more Affliction this Saturday, August just became a bit more manageable. The next big event will be UFC 101 on 8 August, which promises the fight between Forrest Griffin and Anderson Silva. Regardless of if Silva wins as expected, Griffin should at least offer the kind of resistance that makes for an incredible fight. Silva’s recent challenger, Thales Leites, seemed terrified of getting stopped or hurt, but Forrest Griffin seemingly has no regard for pain in the ring. Let’s hope that translates into a vicious fight at light heavyweight.