Before the Penn/Sanchez fight, I had my doubts about whether Sanchez had any path to victory. I figured there was a slight chance he could edge out a decision if things kept standing and he was careful to get the attention of the judges. My gut feeling said that he was hopelessly out of his depth, but I’ve never really liked Diego, so I figured my instincts were too harsh. Well, I was wrong, but only in doubting my feelings about Diego Sanchez. He was utterly destroyed by BJ Penn in just over 4 rounds, the fight being stopped due to Sanchez losing enough blood from his face to fill an Olympic swimming pool.

Sanchez never had any business fighting for the lightweight title at this stage in his lightweight career. He had wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. Stevenson is certainly something, but this was during his period of being crap, and Clay Guida is not an elite fighter – at least not when “capable of challenging BJ Penn” is the necessary requirement for excellence in your division. I think this is the beginning of the end for Diego Sanchez, as he works on a checkered record going up against the true contenders of the lightweight division.

In other news, Frank Mir reminded everyone that he still has the skills to pay said bills. I thought he’d beat Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, which was remarkably naïve now that I think about it. Having said that, Mir has clearly worked on correcting strength disparities, and his victory over Cheick Kongo is testament to his dedication to getting a rubber match with Lesnar. He choked the guy unconscious! What is with fighters recently not tapping out to chokes before they pass out?

The last UFC event of the year/first of next year is UFC 108 on 2 January, AKA The Cursed Card. Injuries galore have changed the line-up of this card over 9000 times already. It’s gotten to the point where people are half expecting it to be cancelled, though that seems a little bit harsh. The current (and hopefully final) main event for UFC 108 will be a match between Rahad Evans and Thiago Silva. This fight is getting odds of -220 Evans to +175 Silva at BetUS, which may favor Rashad a little too much. Nevertheless, Evans should certainly have the edge, with a career fighting much better opposition than Thiago Silva.

Commenting on the rest of the card doesn’t seem too wise just yet, due to the changes that have occurred. Let’s just say that this hardly seems like a card worthy of ringing in a new decade, but what are you going to do? Fighters get hurt sometimes. It’s just odd that so many have been hurt now. Perhaps there’d be value in the UFC having an off-season.

Well, I don’t think it would shock anyone to see Penn keep his belt. What can Sanchez do, exactly, that BJ isn’t capable of neutralizing or doing better? Takedown Penn? Not gonna happen. Reverse Penn? Not gonna happen. Outstrike the champ? Not gonna happen. Diego Sanchez defeated a lazy Joe Stevenson and the lackluster Clay Guida to get here, with his win over Guida coming as a split decision. While he is certainly capable of playing with better fighters at lightweight, Sanchez has done nothing so far to prove he has what it takes to defeat BJ Penn. Sure, Penn’s cardio continues to look suspect, but I don’t think this is going into championship rounds. Is Diego Sanchez going to get owned? YUS!

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo could get interesting if Mir hasn’t focused on training to beat Kongo rather than a rematch with Hulk- I mean Brock Lesnar. Really, the superior ground skills of Mir should win this, but Kongo is no slouch. An expert striker with great reach, Kongo will definitely have the advantage standing, and probably in the clinch. I think Mir should take this fight, but he just needs to have prepared to take Kongo down and have prepared for a rematch against Lesnar.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce I have no qualms about giving to Fitch. Pierce may be on a 6 fight win streak, but his major wins are over fighters that are proving not to live up to the potential they showed earlier in their careers. I have a bad feeling that Fitch is getting used as a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division. This is a big mistake, as the man is a genuine contender. He’ll destroy most other fighters at welterweight, so why feed a possible up-and-comer to this monster?

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida looks set to put Florian on the path to being a gatekeeper for the lightweight division, while setting Guida on the path to retirement… or at least to getting dropped from the UFC. Florian is a better fighter than Guida, who has a UFC record of 5 wins, 4 losses. It’s not that the guy’s bad – he’s just not a contender, and he isn’t quite consistent enough to keep the riff raff out of the top of the division. Florian will take the fight handily, but Guida will put up a struggle and should make this entertaining.

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve will see Buentello make his UFC return. This fight is kind of hard to pick. Struve could potentially rise above his currently iffy record, but he will have to defeat the veteran Buentello first. Both fighters are well versed in kickboxing, and both have many wins by submission. In the end, I’d have to say this fight goes to Buentello if it remains standing, but to Struve if they hit the ground. Overall, I think Struve will take it, managing to hold his own standing before getting Buentello down and finishing him with a submission from there.

The UFC 107 undercard will not be showing any fights on Spike TV, which is too bad, as the Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia fight should be interesting. This is the last UFC event of the year, but Strikeforce and K-1/Dream still have events in December. Other good news is that the Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping match for UFC 110 seems to be a go, but it looks like it won’t be the main event – that honor could now go to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez! Australia is getting a high quality card in February.

In terms of betting, BetUS and Bodog have both offered odds on many major fights for both ShoMMA and Bellator XII. Here’s how some of them compare:

ShoMMA
Sarah Kaufman vs. Shayna Baszler
BetUS: Kaufman -220 and Baszler +170
Bodog: Kaufman -200 and Baszler +160

Jorge Gurgel vs. Conor Heun
BetUS: Gurgel -125 and Heun -115
Bodog: Gurgel -115 and Heun -115

Evangelista Santos vs. Joey Villasenor
BetUS: Santos +170 and Villasenor -220
Bodog: Santos +160 and Villasenor -200

Bellator XII
Eddie Alvarez vs. Toby Imada
BetUS: Alvarez -550 and Imada +325
Bodog: Alvarez -600 and Imada +400

Hector Lombard vs. Jared Hess
BetUS: Lombard -225 and Hess +175
Bodog: Lombard -205 and Hess +165

For ShoMMA, I’m really looking forward to the fight between Kaufman and Baszler. Kaufman is currently undefeated and has won all but one of her fights by KO or TKO. Baszler has a few losses, but all her wins are by submission. This promises an explosive fight standing or on the ground, as Kaufman will be trying for a KO while Baszler seeks to take it to the ground for a submission.

Bellator XII will see the middleweight finals and lightweight finals for their 2009 season. Eddie Alvarez is the favorite to take the lightweight finals, and I don’t see potential for an upset. The middleweight final is less obvious, but the experience of Hector Lombard will likely give him a solid enough advantage to convincingly take the title.

For many more MMA fans and lots of newcomers, the TUF 9 Finale is the big event of the weekend. TUF 9 was certainly an interesting season, and it probably made Mike Bisping even more hated in the USA and loved in the UK. The lightweight finals will be between two Britons, Andre Winner at -185 at Bodog and Ross Pearson at +155 at Bodog. The middleweight finals will be between American DaMarques Johnson and James Wilks from the UK. Bodog has posted odds of -350 for DaMarques Johnson to win and +275 for James Wilks. Here’s a hint – the odds on this fight are quite likely to be skewed by fervent betting on the only American finalist.

In terms of betting on other fights, it is the headline fights for this event that are getting attention. The following odds have been posted for the TUF 9 Finale:

Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez
BetUS: Guida +200 and Sanchez -300
Bodog: Guida +250 and Sanchez -325

Joe Stevenson vs. Nathan Diaz
BetUS: Stevenson +110 and Diaz -150
Bodog: Stevenson +120 and Diaz -150

The Guida/Sanchez odds look about right, as Sanchez is proving to be an exceptional talent in the lightweight division. As for the Stevenson/Diaz odds, I think that Stevenson has a pretty strong chance of getting the upset, as he is very talented at controlling fights. People seem to be giving it to Diaz because of his exceptional BJJ game on the ground, but I really think this underestimates Joe Stevenson’s wrestling abilities.

Have a happy weekend of betting on and watching MMA!