First up, Anderson Silva vs Demian Maia is a very interesting match up. Sure, it has only happened due to Chael Sonnen being unable to fight right now, and it is true that Maia has only one fight between now and his first loss. Nevertheless, most of Silva’s losses have come from submissions, and Maia is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner. It is most likely that Anderson will beat Maia into a fine paste, but a submission victory for the challenger is still an outside possibility.

BJ Penn will murderize Frankie Edgar on the weekend. I don’t know if he’ll do it standing or if he’ll just casually choke one more lightweight challenger. Wherever he decides to fight, the only thing that will save Edgar from a Sanchez/Penn-like bloodbath is BJ’s mercy. Will he have any for Frankie Edgar? If he ends it in the fourth, yes (he lets the opponents he respects at least get to a championship round). If he ends it in the fifth after an incredibly one-sided beatdown, no (Diego Sanchez must have crossed a line or something).

Matt Hughes v Renzo Gracie is an unfortunate fight. Yeah, Hughes has the whole Gracie rivalry thing going, but he is massively overmatched for Renzo. Hughes is far younger, at 36 to 43, and he has a record that normally wouldn’t even be casually compared to that of Renzo Gracie, as it is so much better. Everyone knows that this will end with Renzo getting dominated with wrestling, and then either having his face beat in or just holding out for three rounds to a lopsided decision for Hughes.

UFC 112 is kind of top heavy. While it is nice to see Kendall Grove on the main card of a real UFC event against Mark Munoz, a lot of the other fights have little to no casual appeal. It’s almost like they spent all the money paying for the top 3 fights and had practically nothing left for the prelims. Oh well, while that isn’t great for the people who actually go to see this live, it makes little difference to those of us watching from home.

The next few months are going to be very exciting for UFC fans, but let’s not forget Strikeforce, as the Nashville event will see Jake Shields vs Dan Henderson, Gegard Mousasi vs Muhammed Lawal, and Shinya Aoki vs Gilbert Melendez. Those are all championship fights, yet Shields is likely the underdog against Henderson, and Melendez is in for a tough fight against Aoki. It’s a real contrast to the UFC, where the champions are so dominant that many of them keep talking about moving up in weight class.

Before the Penn/Sanchez fight, I had my doubts about whether Sanchez had any path to victory. I figured there was a slight chance he could edge out a decision if things kept standing and he was careful to get the attention of the judges. My gut feeling said that he was hopelessly out of his depth, but I’ve never really liked Diego, so I figured my instincts were too harsh. Well, I was wrong, but only in doubting my feelings about Diego Sanchez. He was utterly destroyed by BJ Penn in just over 4 rounds, the fight being stopped due to Sanchez losing enough blood from his face to fill an Olympic swimming pool.

Sanchez never had any business fighting for the lightweight title at this stage in his lightweight career. He had wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. Stevenson is certainly something, but this was during his period of being crap, and Clay Guida is not an elite fighter – at least not when “capable of challenging BJ Penn” is the necessary requirement for excellence in your division. I think this is the beginning of the end for Diego Sanchez, as he works on a checkered record going up against the true contenders of the lightweight division.

In other news, Frank Mir reminded everyone that he still has the skills to pay said bills. I thought he’d beat Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, which was remarkably naïve now that I think about it. Having said that, Mir has clearly worked on correcting strength disparities, and his victory over Cheick Kongo is testament to his dedication to getting a rubber match with Lesnar. He choked the guy unconscious! What is with fighters recently not tapping out to chokes before they pass out?

The last UFC event of the year/first of next year is UFC 108 on 2 January, AKA The Cursed Card. Injuries galore have changed the line-up of this card over 9000 times already. It’s gotten to the point where people are half expecting it to be cancelled, though that seems a little bit harsh. The current (and hopefully final) main event for UFC 108 will be a match between Rahad Evans and Thiago Silva. This fight is getting odds of -220 Evans to +175 Silva at BetUS, which may favor Rashad a little too much. Nevertheless, Evans should certainly have the edge, with a career fighting much better opposition than Thiago Silva.

Commenting on the rest of the card doesn’t seem too wise just yet, due to the changes that have occurred. Let’s just say that this hardly seems like a card worthy of ringing in a new decade, but what are you going to do? Fighters get hurt sometimes. It’s just odd that so many have been hurt now. Perhaps there’d be value in the UFC having an off-season.

Well, I don’t think it would shock anyone to see Penn keep his belt. What can Sanchez do, exactly, that BJ isn’t capable of neutralizing or doing better? Takedown Penn? Not gonna happen. Reverse Penn? Not gonna happen. Outstrike the champ? Not gonna happen. Diego Sanchez defeated a lazy Joe Stevenson and the lackluster Clay Guida to get here, with his win over Guida coming as a split decision. While he is certainly capable of playing with better fighters at lightweight, Sanchez has done nothing so far to prove he has what it takes to defeat BJ Penn. Sure, Penn’s cardio continues to look suspect, but I don’t think this is going into championship rounds. Is Diego Sanchez going to get owned? YUS!

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo could get interesting if Mir hasn’t focused on training to beat Kongo rather than a rematch with Hulk- I mean Brock Lesnar. Really, the superior ground skills of Mir should win this, but Kongo is no slouch. An expert striker with great reach, Kongo will definitely have the advantage standing, and probably in the clinch. I think Mir should take this fight, but he just needs to have prepared to take Kongo down and have prepared for a rematch against Lesnar.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce I have no qualms about giving to Fitch. Pierce may be on a 6 fight win streak, but his major wins are over fighters that are proving not to live up to the potential they showed earlier in their careers. I have a bad feeling that Fitch is getting used as a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division. This is a big mistake, as the man is a genuine contender. He’ll destroy most other fighters at welterweight, so why feed a possible up-and-comer to this monster?

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida looks set to put Florian on the path to being a gatekeeper for the lightweight division, while setting Guida on the path to retirement… or at least to getting dropped from the UFC. Florian is a better fighter than Guida, who has a UFC record of 5 wins, 4 losses. It’s not that the guy’s bad – he’s just not a contender, and he isn’t quite consistent enough to keep the riff raff out of the top of the division. Florian will take the fight handily, but Guida will put up a struggle and should make this entertaining.

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve will see Buentello make his UFC return. This fight is kind of hard to pick. Struve could potentially rise above his currently iffy record, but he will have to defeat the veteran Buentello first. Both fighters are well versed in kickboxing, and both have many wins by submission. In the end, I’d have to say this fight goes to Buentello if it remains standing, but to Struve if they hit the ground. Overall, I think Struve will take it, managing to hold his own standing before getting Buentello down and finishing him with a submission from there.

The UFC 107 undercard will not be showing any fights on Spike TV, which is too bad, as the Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia fight should be interesting. This is the last UFC event of the year, but Strikeforce and K-1/Dream still have events in December. Other good news is that the Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping match for UFC 110 seems to be a go, but it looks like it won’t be the main event – that honor could now go to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez! Australia is getting a high quality card in February.

The BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian fight doesn’t seem to have enough hype. While it is certainly true that BJ Penn is a talented monster overshadowing the lightweight division, Kenny Florian poses a genuine risk. Sure, he wasn’t all that impressive when he started out in the UFC, but he’s recently come into his own. It promises to be an excellent fight if both guys come in at the top of their game. Everything points to that being the case, with both fighters hungry to win – Florian to prove he is a legitimate talent and champion, Penn to recover from his loss to GSP.

Sportsbooks are giving the fight to Penn, which is perfectly understandable. BetUS has the fight as -230 for Penn and +180 for Florian. There is definitely good reason to believe that Florian could win, but I would never suggest a bet against BJ Penn at lightweight until it has been proven that his ability has declined at that weight. Plenty of fighters gave him flack over his apparent lack of cardio in his fight against GSP, but I don’t think his welterweight bouts have ever provided useful information about his lightweight performance. The weight change just seems to produce a completely different fighter. I think BJ Penn is most likely to win, unless Florian gets a lucky cut on him.

While the lightweight title defense is exciting, I’m looking forward to the Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin fight much more. The only way I see it not being exciting is if someone gets a knockout in the first 10 seconds, and even that would be interesting. Forrest Griffin doesn’t quit until the fight is over, one way or another, and Anderson Silva is always impressive against fighters like that. Silva is the favorite at BetUS, with -350 odds to Griffin’s +250, and that seems about right. Silva is a better all-round fighter than Griffin, so unless the weight change has severely affected him, it’s almost certain that the fight will go his way. I think it’ll go to decision, as I don’t believe Griffin will be completely outclassed, but any decision is going to come out in favor of Anderson Silva’s ridiculously accurate striking.

Personally, I’m not too interested in that many other fights on the main card. Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino could be good, but I’m more interested in Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida. Both of these fights seem to pit talented mid-tier fighters against one another, and I think that many of the most sincerely fought battles occur at that level of talent. Also, I’ll admit I’m interested in the Grove vs. Almeida fight because I recently started Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and I think that fight is going to stay on the ground.

This is going to be a great month for MMA fans, with so many major events. The unfortunate death of Affliction at the end of July wasn’t great news, but it has seen a lot of up-and-coming fighters taken into the UFC and WEC, and Fedor Emelianenko is moving to Strikeforce, where people may get to see him fight without forking out for a pay-per-view. Later in the week, I’ll take a look at WEC 42 as well, which will see a bantamweight championship bout between dominant Miguel Torres and Brian Bowles.