I was lucky enough to attend this UFC event, and I can tell you that the crowd was revved up the entire time for action standing or on the ground – just so long as the fighters were working! While some late cancellations and replacements led to a particularly one-sided affair (Cro Cop absolutely outclassed Anthony Perosh, as expected) the remaining unaltered fights were a sight to behold.

I’d like to focus attention on 3 fights in particular: Sotiropoulos vs Stevenson, Lytle vs Foster, and Velasquez vs Nogueira. First of all, it did my heart good to see George Sotiropoulos dominate Joe Stevenson standing and on the ground. It was even better to see that George could fight from the bottom, using 10th Planet JJ technique to control Stevenson. Now, I like Joe and I’m sad to see him have to start building up wins again, but Sotiropoulos is an exciting ground fighter who grapples to win. This was a decision only because Joe is so tough – Sotiropoulos made a number of close submission attempts that would have worked on many other less game fighters.

Lytle vs Foster proved that Chris Lytle should be on every card. Of every MMA event. Twice each night, if at all possible. But seriously, that guy always puts on a hell of a show, and while his wild swinging at the start of the fight looked like it might open him up for a spectacular knockout later, he put Brian Foster out of commission for a while with a gorgeous kneebar. That was a thing of beauty to see live, and I couldn’t help but wince as it came on and Foster started tapping furiously. Foster was able to limp on his leg a bit afterwards, so I’m hoping the damage isn’t too severe. Damn good show on the part of Lytle, though my girlfriend thought he was too cocky afterwards.

Finally, Cain Velasquez must have shed his reputation for pillow punches by now, as he knocked Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira down and out in the first round. Considering the number of punches Velasquez was landing with seemingly no effect, I doubt anyone expected a first round KO before it happened. Nogueira looked set to lose that fight from the beginning, though, as Velasquez just kept getting there first with his strikes. This should definitely have earned him a title shot, either against Brock Lesnar directly, or against the winner of Mir/Carwin for the interim title.

It’s hard to get excited for the next event after the huge build-up to 110, but I think I can manage. UFC 111 sees Dan Hardy challenge GSP for the welterweight belt, and I don’t think this will be as one-sided as people expect. While Hardy is primarily a striker, he is fairly obsessed with 10th Planet JJ and actually does quite a bit of work on his ground game. I’m guessing he expects to get taken down, and he probably has a few tricks up his sleeve for fighting from his back against a dominant wrestler like GSP. I doubt Hardy will win, but UFC 111 should prove to doubters that he is a legitimate welterweight contender.

The main event of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez is getting odds of -115 for both fighters at BetUS and -120 Nog to -110 Velasquez at Bodog. Needless to say, the bookies figure it’ll be a close fight. It’s conventional wisdom not to bet on such close fights, and there’s a good reason for that. You are looking at a fairly even chance of a win or loss, yet neither bet you could make would pay out much. BetUS is also offering over/under odds, but those bets are rarely a good idea.

We’re talking a legend of the sport in Nogueira up against a young undefeated prospect in Velasquez. This is a clear test of whether Velasquez has what it takes to vie for title contention. I think he does, and my feeling is that this will actually be a disappointing technical battle. My other guess is Nogueira by omoplata, but that’s just because I think it would be cool to see.

The other really big fight at UFC 110 will be Wanderlei Silva vs Michael Bisping, which BetUS has at -145 Silva to +115 Bisping, and Bodog has at -154 Silva to +125 Bisping. Anyone who has read this blog knows I like Michael Bisping. And, yes, I think he will win. This is mostly due to the fact that Silva has lost 6 of his last 10 fights, while Bisping’s only recent loss was that spectacular knockout delivered by Dan Henderson. Yep, it was a bad loss, but it didn’t really reveal any fundamental flaws with Bisping’s style. I don’t think Silva will be bringing anything of his old self, nor anything revolutionary that will bring back his winning ways. I call a second round TKO for Bisping, who will knock Silva down and then swarm in for the finish.

Joe Stevenson vs George Sotiropoulos is a really interesting fight. I’ll be happy if either fighter wins, as I like them both, but a win for Sotiropoulos would be far more meaningful. Unfortunately, it’ll be a struggle for him, as he’s the underdog in this fight for good reason. George’s BJJ skills are outstanding, as we’ve seen in many of his fights, but he has yet to fight someone with equally impressive ground fighting. Stevenson is that fight, and he is on something of a tear at the moment, coming back from troubling losses with a couple of dominant victories. If George gets past Stevenson, he’s probably on his way to a title shot in a couple more fights. It just doesn’t seem likely given Joe Stevenson’s great wrestling.

There are just so many excellent fights on this card, and it’s going to be a real treat to watch. Sure, you never know what a fight is going to be like until it happens, but most of these match-ups promise a lot of excitement.

The Wrestlebeast smells blood.

All levity aside, Lesnar was in a really bad way when he was first diagnosed with diverticulosis, but no operation was necessary and he has been given a clean bill of health. On ESPN, Dana White announced that Lesnar’s return will see him face the winner of Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin, or the winner of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez if the winner of Mir/Carwin sustains an injury.

Lesnar could not intake enough nutrients given his affliction, and he was probably operating at just over half his true potential. Also, he was still 248 pounds at his lightest, and he is back up to 273 pounds now. That’s pretty incredible, and it’s a sign that his body naturally sits at that massive weight. Unfortunately, considering he was struggling to take in enough nutrients before, this could also mean he’ll get bigger and may end up having to cut a lot of weight. We’ll have to wait and see about that, though.

Now, let’s consider the implications of Brock’s return. First of all, he’s keeping his title, though Mir and Carwin will be fighting for an interim title. Secondly, Lesnar has acknowledged Frank Mir as his stalker, and he welcomes another fight with Frank. I think this is hubris, as it’s a dangerous fight for everyone, including the UFC. If Brock wins, Mir is out of title contention, but he’ll certainly be able to eliminate potential contenders. If Mir wins, there’s no way it’ll be the end of his fights with Lesnar. People will just claim that Lesnar wasn’t ready to come back into such a tough fight, and yet another rematch will be certain. Lesnar and Mir would be forever entwined, Lesnar raining down hammerfists while Mir works for a leglock.

Next, while Lesnar says the heavyweight division is getting nervous about his return, I actually think this sickness has robbed him of his mystique. Before, everyone feared whether he was beatable. Now there are several heavyweights considered capable of challenging him and maybe even defeating him. This is good news for the UFC, as now any challengers to the title will seem more legitimate. While an undefeatable fighting machine can be a good image for a champion, there are enough of those as it is. A human Brock Lesnar makes the heavyweight division look like it is full of legitimate challengers, which means better marketing, and a greater legacy for Lesnar if he beats them.

Still waiting for Strikeforce: Miami and I guess UFC 109 will be good too? I don’t know, I’m too excited for UFC 110, which is such a stacked card. Seriously, UFC 110 is ridiculous in terms of fanboy appeal. While the fights are kind of meaningless in terms of title contention, they’re all exciting on paper. Anyway, more news on upcoming events closer to the dates they’ll be held.

There are only a couple of days until UFC 102, which will see Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira fight to decide who will remain in contention for the heavyweight title, and who will be left as a gatekeeper.

Let’s take a good look at the main event fight. First, we have Randy Couture, who has a long and glorious history, but he has been past his peak for a long time. He’s an excellent athlete, but he’s also in his mid-forties. Randy is up against Minotauro, who has been a real contender in his time… Just not so much in the UFC. He seems to have been affected by age earlier than a lot of fighters, but it is certainly in his power to put on an impressive performance against Couture. He just needs to return to form.

BetUS puts this fight at -170 for Randy and +140 for Minotauro. Whether or not this is fair really depends on what condition Minotauro is in. If he’s in top form, then these odds are probably quite unfair. If he’s shown to be in a continual decline, though, this fight could easily be taken by Randy. Regardless of how Nogueira shows up, it is probably better value to bet on him as Randy’s odds are almost certainly shortened by his popularity. Also, Nogueira has far more to fight for – Randy can do pretty much anything and still have a career in the UFC, while Nogueira needs to silence his critics to avoid becoming a gatekeeper, at best.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva is a fight that really surprises me in that I’m always shocked to see Jardine as the favorite! BetUS has it -145 Jardine and +115 Silva, but how can you ever confidently pick a fight with Jardine in it? His record is so frustratingly inconsistent, and while he’s entertaining, I would never want to risk money on him when he’s against someone like Thiago Silva. The kid may have lost his last fight, but it was to Lyoto Machida! EVERYONE loses to that guy! Before that, Silva was undefeated in 13 fights, though he hadn’t faced many particularly challenging opponents. Some think that Silva could easily get tricked into brawling… But I think this could be just as bad for Jardine, as Silva is not without knockout ability.

I’m not saying Jardine is a bad fighter. He’s just not someone I would want to risk money on. I think you either have to have faith in Thiago Silva getting the upset in this fight, or else avoid betting on it altogether. He’s an entertaining fighter, but Keith Jardine is not a lucky man. If something can go wrong for him, I pretty much expect it to.

Chris Leben and Jake Rosholt should pretty easily go to Leben, and BetUS have put the fight at -150 for Leben and +120 for Rosholt. Rosholt just doesn’t have the experience that Leben does, and any issues of ring rust are unlikely to swing the fight against Leben, as Rosholt hasn’t fought in a while, either. I don’t think Rosholt will get destroyed or anything, but his chance of winning this seems slim. Of course, that all changes if he gets the fight to the ground and keeps it on the ground. There, he’ll have a much easier time, though Leben has been training hard specifically to avoid being ridden to victory. One would think he’s learned his lesson about that, so I don’t see Rosholt managing to keep Leben on the mat.

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is the favorite at BetUS, with -170 and Maia trails at +140. Marquardt has the experience to defeat Maia, but Maia is currently undefeated, even while taking on some of the tougher lower tier fighters in his weight division. A victory for either fighter would likely see him moving up for a possible title shot, but the reputation of each fighter is also going to be harmed by a loss here. I think Marquardt is right as the favorite, but the fight’s not all going to go his way.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski will likely be exciting, with Vera needing to repair his reputation somewhat and Soszynski moving up in the esteem of fight fans with each performance. BetUS gives Vera the edge, with -200 odds. Krzysztof Soszynski is behind at +160, but this is unsurprising given that he is again fighting as a replacement. What’s interesting is that a win for Vera may not mean too much for his career, but a Soszynski win could make for a big career boost. Brandon Vera lost some of his sheen after a couple of losses, but he is still considered to be a talented fighter. Krzysztof Soszynski is on the verge of breaking into the big time, so a win against Vera could see him matched with some higher ranked light heavyweights in the near future. I think Soszynski has a good chance at taking out Vera, but he will have to work hard for it, and is more likely to be convincingly beaten than to pull off a close win against Vera.

The full list of odds offered at BetUS for UFC 102 are:

Randy Couture -170 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +140
Keith Jardine -145 vs. Thiago Silva +115
Chris Leben -150 vs. Jake Rosholt +120
Nate Marquardt -160 vs. Demian Maia +130
Brandon Vera -200 vs. Krzysztof Soszynski +160
Ed Herman -135 vs. Aaron Simpson +105
Gabriel Gonzaga -350 vs. Chris Tuchscherer +250
Justin McCully +200 vs. Mike Russow -260
Tim Hague +125 vs. Todd Duffee -155
Nick Catone +160 vs. Mark Munoz -200

Some of these odds have changed pretty dramatically in the space of a week, mostly seeing the odds shorten on a lot of fighters, though there are notable exceptions such as Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson, and even the Couture/Nogueira fight. It just goes to show that it pays to watch the odds at sportsbooks, and to work out the right timing in order to place the bets you wish to make when they offer the best payoff to money wagered. Here’s to the end of August, and a busy month of MMA, with UFC 102.