UFC 111 Picks
It has seemed like an endless wait between UFC 110 and 111, despite all the other events in between.
The main event will see Dan Hardy finally challenge welterweight champion Georges St Pierre, after several months of smack talk. No matter what Hardy’s chances actually are, he sure knows how to foster interest in a fight.
This fight is getting odds of -800 GSP to +500 Dan Hardy. That is insane, but unsurprising. Hardy has not been spectacular in his little title run. He’s mostly just been vocal and won close decisions. His striking is good, but not stellar, and his ground work is decent, allowing him to avoid damage from the bottom while he works on getting back up. Unless he has just been trying to lull GSP into a false sense of security with the marginal wins he’s taken in his last few fights, the belt will be staying with the Canadian champion for a while yet.
The other big fight on this card is Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin, which I have been looking forward to so very, very much. This fight is getting odds of -160 Mir to +130 Carwin. Is it that close? I don’t think so. I think Mir takes this one, especially with his recently increased muscle mass.
Sure, Shane Carwin is currently undefeated after 11 fights, but he only really began to face quality opposition in his last fight against Gabriel Gonzaga. That was now over a year ago, as Carwin has been waiting on a title shot against Brock Lesnar, so it will be interesting to see if Carwin suffers from ring rust. Mir last fought in December, and he has mostly fought the best UFC heavyweights for the past few years. Carwin could win this one with a surprise KO, but a Mir win via submission seems more likely.
Another important welterweight fight at UFC 111 is Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves. Both have already lost to GSP in title fights, but both are also well-positioned to challenge again. This fight has odds of -140 Alves to +110 Fitch at some bookies, and it really is looking like a coin flip of a fight. If it stays standing, Alves takes it easily, but the same goes for Fitch if the fight hits the ground. Fitch has the advantage of a previous win as well, though it was an unusual victory that was mostly due to an up kick hitting home on a standing Alves. A more likely end to this fight will be a KO victory for Alves or a decision win for Fitch.
The last fight I’d like to look at is Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham, which isn’t getting any love from bookies, but it is an interesting fight. Diaz has moved up to welterweight after some trouble remaining competitive at lightweight. Markham is a solid welterweight fighter, but he hasn’t set the world on fire. This is a much better fight for Diaz than his recent match ups have been, as Markham is very much a striker. Wrestlers have manhandled Diaz at lightweight, and we will only really know whether the increase in weight has helped him after he goes up against a good wrestler, but this theoretically easy fight for Diaz should be a good introduction to a heavier weight division. I expect either a spectacular submission or a spectacular knockout.
April is another so-so month for the UFC in terms of the number of events, but at least it will feature a card with two championship matches and another major Strikeforce event. I guess I’m one of those people who doesn’t think you can oversaturate the market with MMA content.