UFC 107 Picks
UFC 107 sees BJ Penn defend his title yet again… Oh, it’s a bit too soon to say that, huh?
Well, I don’t think it would shock anyone to see Penn keep his belt. What can Sanchez do, exactly, that BJ isn’t capable of neutralizing or doing better? Takedown Penn? Not gonna happen. Reverse Penn? Not gonna happen. Outstrike the champ? Not gonna happen. Diego Sanchez defeated a lazy Joe Stevenson and the lackluster Clay Guida to get here, with his win over Guida coming as a split decision. While he is certainly capable of playing with better fighters at lightweight, Sanchez has done nothing so far to prove he has what it takes to defeat BJ Penn. Sure, Penn’s cardio continues to look suspect, but I don’t think this is going into championship rounds. Is Diego Sanchez going to get owned? YUS!
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo could get interesting if Mir hasn’t focused on training to beat Kongo rather than a rematch with Hulk- I mean Brock Lesnar. Really, the superior ground skills of Mir should win this, but Kongo is no slouch. An expert striker with great reach, Kongo will definitely have the advantage standing, and probably in the clinch. I think Mir should take this fight, but he just needs to have prepared to take Kongo down and have prepared for a rematch against Lesnar.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce I have no qualms about giving to Fitch. Pierce may be on a 6 fight win streak, but his major wins are over fighters that are proving not to live up to the potential they showed earlier in their careers. I have a bad feeling that Fitch is getting used as a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division. This is a big mistake, as the man is a genuine contender. He’ll destroy most other fighters at welterweight, so why feed a possible up-and-comer to this monster?
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida looks set to put Florian on the path to being a gatekeeper for the lightweight division, while setting Guida on the path to retirement… or at least to getting dropped from the UFC. Florian is a better fighter than Guida, who has a UFC record of 5 wins, 4 losses. It’s not that the guy’s bad – he’s just not a contender, and he isn’t quite consistent enough to keep the riff raff out of the top of the division. Florian will take the fight handily, but Guida will put up a struggle and should make this entertaining.
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve will see Buentello make his UFC return. This fight is kind of hard to pick. Struve could potentially rise above his currently iffy record, but he will have to defeat the veteran Buentello first. Both fighters are well versed in kickboxing, and both have many wins by submission. In the end, I’d have to say this fight goes to Buentello if it remains standing, but to Struve if they hit the ground. Overall, I think Struve will take it, managing to hold his own standing before getting Buentello down and finishing him with a submission from there.
The UFC 107 undercard will not be showing any fights on Spike TV, which is too bad, as the Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia fight should be interesting. This is the last UFC event of the year, but Strikeforce and K-1/Dream still have events in December. Other good news is that the Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping match for UFC 110 seems to be a go, but it looks like it won’t be the main event – that honor could now go to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez! Australia is getting a high quality card in February.