UFC 106 Picks
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin 2 is a defining moment for both athletes, as a loss would damage the career of either fighter.
This fight is one I don’t really want to pick, as I think Tito will win despite how much I want Forrest to get back into the top of the light heavyweight division. As much as I want a Griffin victory, though, I just do not see him pulling it off if Ortiz really has recovered from his back injuries. It wasn’t as if their last fight was especially close, and Forrest has two losses weighing on his mind that he may not be dealing with. Some sportsbooks are giving odds of -165 Griffin to +135 Ortiz, but I just don’t see how Forrest is going to win this one without getting a knockout in the first exchange, which is hardly something he is known for.
Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson depends, as always, on which Josh Koscheck shows up to fight. If Koscheck just focuses on wrestling, it should be a cakewalk for him. If he decides he wants to try standing with Johnson, however, he’ll soon be reminded that most of Johnson’s wins have been by KO or TKO. It should also be noted that Johnson is a massive welterweight who has trouble making weight, as evidenced by what happened before his last fight against Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Koscheck just will not be able to match or withstand the power of an Anthony Johnson striking onslaught, but his wrestling could definitely control the fight and earn the win.
Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett has incredibly close odds of -120 Hazelett and -110 Parisyan. I think Parisyan should have the advantage, but he’s been pretty cocky about his superiority to BJJ practitioners. I really get the feeling he hasn’t taken this fight seriously, and that may be all Hazelett needs to slap on a submission – just a moment when Karo is careless on the ground and makes a perilous mistake. Parisyan should win this fight, but an unchecked ego could be his undoing against the skillful submission artist, Dustin Hazelett.
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni is generally considered to be in Sadollah’s favor. I just can’t agree, despite Baroni’s inability to fight off his back. While Amir won TUF 7, it was hardly an impressive victory given he had already beaten CB Dolloway in his semi-final fight. Sadollah’s next fight was a loss, putting him at 1-1, but you have to give him credit for fighting all of his pro fights in the UFC. With that said, Phil Baroni has a embarrassing record for someone who calls himself ‘The Best EVA!!!’. His boxing and wrestling are decent, though, and I think his greater experience will make him more than just an easy fight for Sadollah. I expect a lot of complaints from fans after this fight of how Baroni has knocked Sadollah out of the UFC, while having no chance of a title shot himself.
The last of the main card UFC 106 fights sees Antonio Rogerio “Little Nog” Nogueira make his UFC debut against Luiz Cane. This Nogueira is the twin brother of Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira, and while not as famous, he has wins over top fighters such as Dan Henderson and Alistair Overeem. Nevertheless, Luiz Cane should prove a challenge, with his dangerous striking and training in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu allowing him to be competitive on the ground with Nogueira, who is most at home there. I think L’il Nog takes this fight, and practically everyone else in the world agrees.
I’m a bit surprised at how much hate this card is getting. It’s as if every fight in the UFC has to be between two major fighters in order to be at all worthwhile. Sure, the cost of PPVs makes every bad fight sting all the worse, but the UFC isn’t putting on terrible shows. I don’t know, maybe I’m weird. I actually think that fights between middle-tier guys who have no chance at winning the title are still great fun to watch if their styles match up well. Anyway, here’s hoping for an event that’s full of excitement.