UFC 104 Picks

Finally, after waiting since May, Lyoto Machida will defend his title against Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua at UFC 104.

I have a terrible feeling the Lyoto/Shogun match-up could be a lot like the Silva/Griffin fight – a fight that looks entertaining on paper, but the underdog is at a much greater disadvantage than expected. BetUS has the fight at -450 Machida and +325 Shogun, yet those who believe in Shogun’s chances in this fight would make you think the bookies should be calling it much closer.

Shogun supporters seem absolutely convinced that he has the best chance to win. I think most reasonable folk agree, however, that he is a fill-in fight until a more suitable contender can be found. Shogun is a fine fighter, but he has demonstrated no special quality that suggests he is the most likely challenger to take Machida’s belt.

The Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell fight could be very interesting, and BetUS has the fight at -300 Velasquez to +220 Rothwell. Considering Velasquez’s reputation and lack of experience compared to Rothwell, these odds seem very unfair to Rothwell. While Velasquez may have built up something of a reputation for himself, he has still had only 6 fights, even if he is undefeated. Rothwell has 6 losses, but that’s out of 36 fights. That’s 6 times as many fights, and the guy is hardly older than Velasquez. Rothwell might not be as athletic, but age won’t be a factor, while experience could very well be.

I’m looking forward to the Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher fight. He copped a lot of flack for taking the path of positional control to win his last fight, but I find his ability in that area fascinating. Spencer Fisher should prove to be an interesting challenge, as he has ability both on his feet and on the ground, but the BetUS odds of Stevenson -260 to Fisher +200 seem fair.

I’m really looking forward to this event, as it’s been quite a while since a big MMA show with a headline event of real interest. I don’t think Shogun is going to be quite as challenging as is generally thought, but the fight is set to be a very interesting one regardless of the outcome, as a win over Shogun will still certainly be an important victory for Lyoto Machida.