UFC 102 Preview

There are only a couple of days until UFC 102, which will see Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira fight to decide who will remain in contention for the heavyweight title, and who will be left as a gatekeeper.

Let’s take a good look at the main event fight. First, we have Randy Couture, who has a long and glorious history, but he has been past his peak for a long time. He’s an excellent athlete, but he’s also in his mid-forties. Randy is up against Minotauro, who has been a real contender in his time… Just not so much in the UFC. He seems to have been affected by age earlier than a lot of fighters, but it is certainly in his power to put on an impressive performance against Couture. He just needs to return to form.

BetUS puts this fight at -170 for Randy and +140 for Minotauro. Whether or not this is fair really depends on what condition Minotauro is in. If he’s in top form, then these odds are probably quite unfair. If he’s shown to be in a continual decline, though, this fight could easily be taken by Randy. Regardless of how Nogueira shows up, it is probably better value to bet on him as Randy’s odds are almost certainly shortened by his popularity. Also, Nogueira has far more to fight for – Randy can do pretty much anything and still have a career in the UFC, while Nogueira needs to silence his critics to avoid becoming a gatekeeper, at best.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva is a fight that really surprises me in that I’m always shocked to see Jardine as the favorite! BetUS has it -145 Jardine and +115 Silva, but how can you ever confidently pick a fight with Jardine in it? His record is so frustratingly inconsistent, and while he’s entertaining, I would never want to risk money on him when he’s against someone like Thiago Silva. The kid may have lost his last fight, but it was to Lyoto Machida! EVERYONE loses to that guy! Before that, Silva was undefeated in 13 fights, though he hadn’t faced many particularly challenging opponents. Some think that Silva could easily get tricked into brawling… But I think this could be just as bad for Jardine, as Silva is not without knockout ability.

I’m not saying Jardine is a bad fighter. He’s just not someone I would want to risk money on. I think you either have to have faith in Thiago Silva getting the upset in this fight, or else avoid betting on it altogether. He’s an entertaining fighter, but Keith Jardine is not a lucky man. If something can go wrong for him, I pretty much expect it to.

Chris Leben and Jake Rosholt should pretty easily go to Leben, and BetUS have put the fight at -150 for Leben and +120 for Rosholt. Rosholt just doesn’t have the experience that Leben does, and any issues of ring rust are unlikely to swing the fight against Leben, as Rosholt hasn’t fought in a while, either. I don’t think Rosholt will get destroyed or anything, but his chance of winning this seems slim. Of course, that all changes if he gets the fight to the ground and keeps it on the ground. There, he’ll have a much easier time, though Leben has been training hard specifically to avoid being ridden to victory. One would think he’s learned his lesson about that, so I don’t see Rosholt managing to keep Leben on the mat.

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is the favorite at BetUS, with -170 and Maia trails at +140. Marquardt has the experience to defeat Maia, but Maia is currently undefeated, even while taking on some of the tougher lower tier fighters in his weight division. A victory for either fighter would likely see him moving up for a possible title shot, but the reputation of each fighter is also going to be harmed by a loss here. I think Marquardt is right as the favorite, but the fight’s not all going to go his way.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski will likely be exciting, with Vera needing to repair his reputation somewhat and Soszynski moving up in the esteem of fight fans with each performance. BetUS gives Vera the edge, with -200 odds. Krzysztof Soszynski is behind at +160, but this is unsurprising given that he is again fighting as a replacement. What’s interesting is that a win for Vera may not mean too much for his career, but a Soszynski win could make for a big career boost. Brandon Vera lost some of his sheen after a couple of losses, but he is still considered to be a talented fighter. Krzysztof Soszynski is on the verge of breaking into the big time, so a win against Vera could see him matched with some higher ranked light heavyweights in the near future. I think Soszynski has a good chance at taking out Vera, but he will have to work hard for it, and is more likely to be convincingly beaten than to pull off a close win against Vera.

The full list of odds offered at BetUS for UFC 102 are:

Randy Couture -170 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +140
Keith Jardine -145 vs. Thiago Silva +115
Chris Leben -150 vs. Jake Rosholt +120
Nate Marquardt -160 vs. Demian Maia +130
Brandon Vera -200 vs. Krzysztof Soszynski +160
Ed Herman -135 vs. Aaron Simpson +105
Gabriel Gonzaga -350 vs. Chris Tuchscherer +250
Justin McCully +200 vs. Mike Russow -260
Tim Hague +125 vs. Todd Duffee -155
Nick Catone +160 vs. Mark Munoz -200

Some of these odds have changed pretty dramatically in the space of a week, mostly seeing the odds shorten on a lot of fighters, though there are notable exceptions such as Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson, and even the Couture/Nogueira fight. It just goes to show that it pays to watch the odds at sportsbooks, and to work out the right timing in order to place the bets you wish to make when they offer the best payoff to money wagered. Here’s to the end of August, and a busy month of MMA, with UFC 102.