UFC 101 This Weekend

After all of the excitement of UFC 100 and the brouhaha surrounding Lesnar’s post-fight antics, UFC 101 just doesn’t seem to matter. Until you remember the fights between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian or Anderson Silva and Forrest Griffin.

The BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian fight doesn’t seem to have enough hype. While it is certainly true that BJ Penn is a talented monster overshadowing the lightweight division, Kenny Florian poses a genuine risk. Sure, he wasn’t all that impressive when he started out in the UFC, but he’s recently come into his own. It promises to be an excellent fight if both guys come in at the top of their game. Everything points to that being the case, with both fighters hungry to win – Florian to prove he is a legitimate talent and champion, Penn to recover from his loss to GSP.

Sportsbooks are giving the fight to Penn, which is perfectly understandable. BetUS has the fight as -230 for Penn and +180 for Florian. There is definitely good reason to believe that Florian could win, but I would never suggest a bet against BJ Penn at lightweight until it has been proven that his ability has declined at that weight. Plenty of fighters gave him flack over his apparent lack of cardio in his fight against GSP, but I don’t think his welterweight bouts have ever provided useful information about his lightweight performance. The weight change just seems to produce a completely different fighter. I think BJ Penn is most likely to win, unless Florian gets a lucky cut on him.

While the lightweight title defense is exciting, I’m looking forward to the Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin fight much more. The only way I see it not being exciting is if someone gets a knockout in the first 10 seconds, and even that would be interesting. Forrest Griffin doesn’t quit until the fight is over, one way or another, and Anderson Silva is always impressive against fighters like that. Silva is the favorite at BetUS, with -350 odds to Griffin’s +250, and that seems about right. Silva is a better all-round fighter than Griffin, so unless the weight change has severely affected him, it’s almost certain that the fight will go his way. I think it’ll go to decision, as I don’t believe Griffin will be completely outclassed, but any decision is going to come out in favor of Anderson Silva’s ridiculously accurate striking.

Personally, I’m not too interested in that many other fights on the main card. Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino could be good, but I’m more interested in Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida. Both of these fights seem to pit talented mid-tier fighters against one another, and I think that many of the most sincerely fought battles occur at that level of talent. Also, I’ll admit I’m interested in the Grove vs. Almeida fight because I recently started Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and I think that fight is going to stay on the ground.

This is going to be a great month for MMA fans, with so many major events. The unfortunate death of Affliction at the end of July wasn’t great news, but it has seen a lot of up-and-coming fighters taken into the UFC and WEC, and Fedor Emelianenko is moving to Strikeforce, where people may get to see him fight without forking out for a pay-per-view. Later in the week, I’ll take a look at WEC 42 as well, which will see a bantamweight championship bout between dominant Miguel Torres and Brian Bowles.