UFC 100 Picks

Two men enter, both leave… Okay, it ain’t exactly Thunderdome, but UFC 100 is looking to be pretty spectacular.

The biggest event for many on 11 July will be the Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir fight. I’m just going to put it out there now that I am shocked to see Lesnar as the favorite for this fight. At BetUS, he’s -240 to Mir’s +190. Mir is the same at Bodog, but Lesnar is even more strongly favored there at -250. At Sportsbook.com, they have Lesnar at -215 and Mir at +175.

Lesnar may be the current heavyweight champion, but Frank Mir wasn’t being all that cocky when he said Lesnar was wearing his belt. The title shot Brock Lesnar got was very unusual, especially considering his short MMA record. He lost to Frank Mir in one of his fights, and he’s only had four in total. The only champion level MMA competition he has beaten is Randy Couture, who is in his mid-forties and hadn’t fought in over a year when they met. Sure, Couture is an excellent fighter, but Lesnar should have been put through a lot more other fighters before getting that title shot. If he had been, I’m doubtful that Randy would still have been the title holder, and I think Lesnar would have had a much more difficult time in taking the title.

Frank Mir has been champion before and his form has improved incredibly since then. He’s had to earn this title shot, and has a victory over Lesnar already. While people say that Lesnar was controlling the fight before Mir got the kneebar on him, they seem to forget that the fight only lasted a minute and half. If you can’t avoid being submitted in the first half of the first round, you have a serious hole in your game. Claims that Lesnar gave Mir that kneebar just make the situation worse, as no one competent in submissions just gives an opportunity away.

Anyway, enough ranting about Brock Lesnar being overrated. He isn’t a bad fighter, just overrated for now, and he could be freakishly good in the future. Yes, he has strength, but every heavyweight has strength. Practically nothing else is known about him other than his wrestling, his right hand and his strength. I think that a bet on Mir is much better value than a bet on Lesnar, as there is massive potential for an upset in this fight.

The next biggest fight is going to be between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Now, while I agree with most that GSP is set to win, I also think that this could easily turn into the best fight on the card. Thiago Alves has victories over crazy-good competition, including Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. I don’t believe he is anywhere near the freakishly talented GSP, however, which is why I wouldn’t bet on this fight. BetUS has GSP at -300, Bodog has him at -340 and Sportsbook.com has him at -290. Alves is at +220 at BetUS, +260 at Bodog, and +230 at Sportsbook.com. For those who simply must bet on the fight (just don’t!), I’d put a small bet on Alves, as he has just enough of a chance to win this with striking, coupled with long enough odds to make the payoff worthwhile. I would bet a very, very, very small amount, however, as I am much more convinced that GSP will win in dominant fashion.

The fight I’m looking forward to most is Bisping vs. Henderson. Is it to see Michael Bisping finally shut his big mouth? Nope, it’s hopefully to see him run it even more and get a title shot against Anderson Silva! Also, if he wins, it will complete the TUF 9 victory of the UK. I know that doesn’t mean much to American MMA fans, but it’s a great sign for everyone else, as it signals a possible end to the complete dominance of fighters from the Americas.

So, who will win when Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson enter the cage? I want to say Bisping, obviously, but many would disagree. There are good reasons to favor Bisping, however, as the odds on this fight are very likely to be out of whack with the reality of it.

BetUS has Henderson at -230, Bodog has him at -250, and Sportsbook.com has him at -225. Bisping is at +180 at BetUS, +190 at Bodog, and +185 at Sportsbook.com. I can’t blame anyone for setting odds like this due to Dan Henderson’s impressive history, but he hasn’t exactly shined since coming to the UFC. Aside from his win over Rich Franklin, Henderson hasn’t defeated the top competition he has come up against in the UFC. Now, I’m not comparing Bisping to Quinton Jackson or Anderson Silva (at least not yet), but Henderson’s winning ways have not been the same since his championship days in PRIDE. I think Bisping is a much better fighter than some give him credit for, with the Matt Hamill fight having been something of a curse for his reputation. Henderson isn’t going to get destroyed in this fight, but I do think he is going to lose to decision or submission to Mike Bisping.

UFC 100 is looking to be good because of just how full of potentially excellent fights it is. Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago is a well-matched fight, with both possessing excellent records. Paulo Thiago is currently undefeated, and Jon Fitch’s only recent loss was to Georges St. Pierre. Paulo Thiago could gain a title shot quite quickly if he takes out Jon Fitch, but Fitch will be motivated to win this fight to avoid a role as a gatekeeper. BetUS has this fight for Fitch at -450, Bodog has him -500, and Sportsbook.com has him at -365. Paulo Thiago is at +325 at BetUS, +300 at Bodog, and +285 at Sportsbook.com. Thiago hasn’t really been able to prove himself against much heavy competition yet, with really only a win against Josh Koscheck to give him a reputation in the UFC, but I think these odds are a little too strongly in favor of Fitch. Nevertheless, I imagine Fitch will actually win. I’d avoid a bet here, as there are too many unknowns about Paulo Thiago.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher is a fight that some will have been anticipating with baited breath. This will be Akiyama’s UFC debut, and he is considered one of the better middleweight fighters in the world. Belcher has a much longer history in the UFC, but the sportsbooks are still favoring Akiyama. I’d have to say I agree with them. BetUS and Bodog have Akiyama at -300, and Sportsbook.com has him at -340. Belcher is at +220 with BetUS, +240 with Bodog, and +260 with Sportsbook.com.

There are a couple of potentially interesting fights in the preliminary card, but the one I’m interested in is Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman. I’m unfortunately agreeing with the sportsbooks again in saying that Bonnar will win this one. At BetUS he’s -350, he’s -365 at Bodog, and -325 at Sportsbook.com. Coleman is +250 at BetUS and Sportsbook.com, and +285 at Bodog. I wouldn’t bet on this fight, as I think Coleman’s odds are a bit too short to be honest. He was a fine fighter back in his day, but Stephan Bonnar should certainly be more than a match for him currently.

There are many other fights, but I might take a look at them closer to the event. Remember to look for the most favorable odds for the bets you want to make, and don’t just bet blindly on favorites or underdogs. We’ll talk more about MMA shortly.