TUF 9 Finale, Bellator XII and ShoMMA

Wow, this weekend is going to be a big one for MMA, with three reasonably big events on.
Friday will see the latest ShoMMA and Bellator XII. I’m quite excited by the female bout that’s set for ShoMMA, as the styles of the fighters should make for a very exciting match up. Bellator XII is showing the lightweight and middleweight finals for 2009, so it will be a somewhat different format to the usual, with many non-tournament bouts.

In terms of betting, BetUS and Bodog have both offered odds on many major fights for both ShoMMA and Bellator XII. Here’s how some of them compare:

ShoMMA
Sarah Kaufman vs. Shayna Baszler
BetUS: Kaufman -220 and Baszler +170
Bodog: Kaufman -200 and Baszler +160

Jorge Gurgel vs. Conor Heun
BetUS: Gurgel -125 and Heun -115
Bodog: Gurgel -115 and Heun -115

Evangelista Santos vs. Joey Villasenor
BetUS: Santos +170 and Villasenor -220
Bodog: Santos +160 and Villasenor -200

Bellator XII
Eddie Alvarez vs. Toby Imada
BetUS: Alvarez -550 and Imada +325
Bodog: Alvarez -600 and Imada +400

Hector Lombard vs. Jared Hess
BetUS: Lombard -225 and Hess +175
Bodog: Lombard -205 and Hess +165

For ShoMMA, I’m really looking forward to the fight between Kaufman and Baszler. Kaufman is currently undefeated and has won all but one of her fights by KO or TKO. Baszler has a few losses, but all her wins are by submission. This promises an explosive fight standing or on the ground, as Kaufman will be trying for a KO while Baszler seeks to take it to the ground for a submission.

Bellator XII will see the middleweight finals and lightweight finals for their 2009 season. Eddie Alvarez is the favorite to take the lightweight finals, and I don’t see potential for an upset. The middleweight final is less obvious, but the experience of Hector Lombard will likely give him a solid enough advantage to convincingly take the title.

For many more MMA fans and lots of newcomers, the TUF 9 Finale is the big event of the weekend. TUF 9 was certainly an interesting season, and it probably made Mike Bisping even more hated in the USA and loved in the UK. The lightweight finals will be between two Britons, Andre Winner at -185 at Bodog and Ross Pearson at +155 at Bodog. The middleweight finals will be between American DaMarques Johnson and James Wilks from the UK. Bodog has posted odds of -350 for DaMarques Johnson to win and +275 for James Wilks. Here’s a hint – the odds on this fight are quite likely to be skewed by fervent betting on the only American finalist.

In terms of betting on other fights, it is the headline fights for this event that are getting attention. The following odds have been posted for the TUF 9 Finale:

Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez
BetUS: Guida +200 and Sanchez -300
Bodog: Guida +250 and Sanchez -325

Joe Stevenson vs. Nathan Diaz
BetUS: Stevenson +110 and Diaz -150
Bodog: Stevenson +120 and Diaz -150

The Guida/Sanchez odds look about right, as Sanchez is proving to be an exceptional talent in the lightweight division. As for the Stevenson/Diaz odds, I think that Stevenson has a pretty strong chance of getting the upset, as he is very talented at controlling fights. People seem to be giving it to Diaz because of his exceptional BJJ game on the ground, but I really think this underestimates Joe Stevenson’s wrestling abilities.

Have a happy weekend of betting on and watching MMA!